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Testing the Martingale Property of Exchange Rates: A Replication

Author

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  • Belaire-Franch Jorge

    (Universitat de València)

  • Contreras Dulce

    (Universitat de València)

Abstract

In this paper, we test the martingale property of a set of U.S. exchange rates already analyzed in a recent paper by Yilmaz [J. of Buss. and Ec. Stat., 2003]. We claim that the tests used by Yilmaz are not the most convenient to test the martingale hypothesis (or the equivalent martingale difference of the returns); hence, we compute a recently proposed test by Kuan and Lee [Stud. in Nonlin. Dyn. and Econ., 2004] and compare our results to Yilmaz's. Striking differences arise, which can give a clue about the type of data generating process governing the evolution of exchange rates in each sub-period.

Suggested Citation

  • Belaire-Franch Jorge & Contreras Dulce, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Property of Exchange Rates: A Replication," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:15:y:2010:i:1:n:re1
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1796
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    2. Hochberg, Yosef, 1974. "Some generalizations of the T-method in simultaneous inference," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 224-234, June.
    3. Bierens, Herman J., 1982. "Consistent model specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 105-134, October.
    4. Kuan Chung-Ming & Lee Wei-Ming, 2004. "A New Test of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Chen, Yi-Ting & Chou, Ray Y. & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Testing time reversibility without moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 199-218, March.
    6. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-254.
    7. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2003. "Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 383-395, July.
    8. Fong, Wai Mun & Koh, Seng Kee & Ouliaris, Sam, 1997. "Joint Variance-Ratio Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 51-59, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    2. Dilip Kumar & Srinivasan Maheswaran, 2014. "Are major global stock markets efficient? An application of the martingale difference hypothesis with wild bootstrap," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(2/3/4), pages 217-233.

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