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Moving Holidays and Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Alper C. Emre

    (Department of Economics, Bogazici University)

  • Aruoba S. Boragan

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

When holiday variation is present so that the dates of certain holidays change from year to year, the relatively automatic seasonal adjustment procedures may fail to extract the seasonal component from a series since the holiday effects are not confined to that component. Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, constitutes a good example of moving holidays since the official calendar is Gregorian, based on the cycles of the Earth around the sun, while significant Islamic holidays are tied to the Hegirian calendar, based on the lunar cycles. One finds significant deterministic seasonality remains in the conventionally de-seasonalized time series and removing the effects of religious seasonality using a very simple method improves the qualities of the de-seasonalized component.

Suggested Citation

  • Alper C. Emre & Aruoba S. Boragan, 2004. "Moving Holidays and Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 44-50, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:2:y:2004:i:3:n:3
    DOI: 10.2202/1475-3693.1047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clive W. J. Granger, 1978. "Seasonality: Causation, Interpretation, and Implications," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 33-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Basker, Emek, 2005. "'Twas four weeks before Christmas: Retail sales and the length of the Christmas shopping season," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 317-322, December.
    2. Aslihan Atabek Demirhan, 2010. "Ramazan Ayinin Uretim Uzerindeki Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1014, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Irfan Ali & Waheed Akhter & Namrah Ashraf, 2017. "Impact of Muslim Holy Days on Asian stock markets: An empirical evidence," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1311096-131, January.
    4. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.

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    Keywords

    calendar variation; Hegirian calendar;

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