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Game importance as a dimension of uncertainty of outcome

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Xinrong

    (Child and Family Research Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1010 W. Nevada, Suite 2080, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Humphreys Brad R.

    (Department of Economics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 0T3 Canada)

Abstract

Sports teams have incentives to put more effort into games with an immediate effect on standings compared to games that do not, possibly affecting outcome uncertainty. We develop a measure of game outcome uncertainty, game importance (GI), that captures how each game affects a team’s standing and can be calculated for individual games. Results show that observed variation in GI explains observed variation in attendance, game outcomes, and margin of victory at MLB games over the 1994 through 2010 seasons, suggesting that GI is an influential indicator in fans’ attendance decisions, consistent with the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Xinrong & Humphreys Brad R., 2013. "Game importance as a dimension of uncertainty of outcome," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 25-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:9:y:2013:i:1:p:25-36:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2012-0019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Courty & Jeffrey Cisyk, 2024. "Sports injuries and game stakes: Concussions in the National Football League," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 430-448, January.
    2. Daniel Goller & Sandro Heiniger, 2024. "A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(1), pages 71-93, October.
    3. Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2014. "The Louis-Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Working Papers 2014-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    4. Franziska Braschke & Patrick A. Puhani, 2023. "Population Adjustment to Asymmetric Labour Market Shocks in India: A Comparison to Europe and the United States at Two Different Regional Levels," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 66(1), pages 7-35, March.
    5. Nola Agha & Thomas Rhoads, 2016. "The League Standing Effect: The Case of a Split Season in Minor League Baseball," Working Papers 2016-13, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2016.
    6. Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2015. "The Louis–Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(8), pages 835-852, December.

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