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A Lower Bound Model for Multiple Record Systems Estimation with Heterogeneous Catchability

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  • Rivest Louis-Paul

Abstract

This work considers the estimation of the size N of a closed population using incomplete lists of its members. Capture histories are constructed by establishing the presence or the absence of each individual in all the lists available. Models for data featuring a heterogeneous catchability and list dependencies are considered. A log-linear model leading to a lower bound for the population size is derived for a known set of list dependencies and a latent catchability variable with an arbitrary distribution. This generalizes Chao’s lower bound to models with interactions. The proposed model can be used to carry out a search for important list interactions. It also provides diagnostic information about the nature of the underlying heterogeneity. Indeed, it is shown that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator of N under a dichotomous latent class model does not exist for a particular set of LB models. Several distributions for the heterogeneous catchability are considered; they allow to investigate the sensitivity of the population size estimate to the model for the heterogeneous catchability.

Suggested Citation

  • Rivest Louis-Paul, 2011. "A Lower Bound Model for Multiple Record Systems Estimation with Heterogeneous Catchability," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:ijbist:v:7:y:2011:i:1:n:23
    DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Murphy, J., 2009. "Estimating the World Trade Center Tower Population on September 11, 2001: A capture-recapture approach," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(1), pages 65-67.
    2. Huggins, Richard, 2001. "A note on the difficulties associated with the analysis of capture-recapture experiments with heterogeneous capture probabilities," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 147-152, September.
    3. William A. Link, 2003. "Nonidentifiability of Population Size from Capture-Recapture Data with Heterogeneous Detection Probabilities," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1123-1130, December.
    4. Louis-Paul Rivest & Sophie Baillargeon, 2007. "Applications and Extensions of Chao's Moment Estimator for the Size of a Closed Population," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 999-1006, December.
    5. Shirley Pledger, 2005. "The Performance of Mixture Models in Heterogeneous Closed Population Capture–Recapture," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 868-873, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stoklosa, Jakub & Huggins, Richard M., 2012. "A robust P-spline approach to closed population capture–recapture models with time dependence and heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 408-417.
    2. Chang Xuan Mao & Cuiying Yang & Yitong Yang & Wei Zhuang, 2017. "Estimating population sizes with the Rasch model," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 69(3), pages 705-716, June.

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