IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/germec/v20y2019i4pe831-e851.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Let the Data Speak? On the Importance of Theory-Based Instrumental Variable Estimations

Author

Listed:
  • Grossmann Volker

    (University of Fribourg,Fribourg, Switzerland)

  • Osikominu Aderonke

    (University of Hohenheim,Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract

In absence of randomized-controlled experiments, identification is often aimed via instrumental variable (IV) strategies, typically two-stage least squares estimations. According to Bayes’ rule, however, under a low ex ante probability that a hypothesis is true (e.g. that an excluded instrument is partially correlated with an endogenous regressor), the interpretation of the estimation results may be fundamentally flawed. This paper argues that rigorous theoretical reasoning is key to design credible identification strategies, the foremost, finding candidates for valid instruments. We discuss prominent IV analyses from the macro-development literature to illustrate the potential benefit of structurally derived IV approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Grossmann Volker & Osikominu Aderonke, 2019. "Let the Data Speak? On the Importance of Theory-Based Instrumental Variable Estimations," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 831-851, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:20:y:2019:i:4:p:e831-e851
    DOI: 10.1111/geer.12192
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/geer.12192
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/geer.12192?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernst Fehr, 2009. "On The Economics and Biology of Trust," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 235-266, 04-05.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan (J.B.) Engelmann & Basil Schmid & Justin Chumbley & Ernst Fehr, 2018. "The Dark Side of Personality: Anti-Sociality Increases Strategic Game Play," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-010/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Blaine G Robbins, 2012. "A Blessing and a Curse? Political Institutions in the Growth and Decay of Generalized Trust: A Cross-National Panel Analysis, 1980–2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Binzel, Christine & Fehr, Dietmar, 2013. "Social distance and trust: Experimental evidence from a slum in Cairo," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 99-106.
    4. Hilger, Anne & Nordman, Christophe Jalil, 2020. "The Determinants of Trust: Evidence from Rural South India," IZA Discussion Papers 13150, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Diego Marino Fages, 2023. "Migration and trust: Evidence on assimilation from internal migrants," Discussion Papers 2023-08, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    6. Sylvain Mignot & Stéphanie Saba & Annick Vignes, 2016. "To trust or to bid: an empirical analysis of social relationships on a fish market," Working Papers halshs-01298872, HAL.
    7. Dimitris Georgarakos & Giacomo Pasini, 2011. "Trust, Sociability, and Stock Market Participation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 693-725.
    8. Ginny Seung Choi & Virgil Henry Storr, 2020. "Market interactions, trust and reciprocity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-32, May.
    9. Jason Aimone & Daniel Houser, 2012. "What you don’t know won’t hurt you: a laboratory analysis of betrayal aversion," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 15(4), pages 571-588, December.
    10. Andres, Maximilian & Bruttel, Lisa & Friedrichsen, Jana, 2021. "The leniency rule revisited: Experiments on cartel formation with open communication," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Elisa Borghi & Michela Braga & Francesco Scervini, 2020. "Fear of the dark: How terrorist events affect trust in the long run," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20149, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. António Madureira & Nico Baken & Harry Bouwman, 2011. "Value of digital information networks: a holonic framework," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, April.
    13. Pablo Hernandez & Dylan Minor, 2015. "Political Identity and Trust," Harvard Business School Working Papers 16-012, Harvard Business School.
    14. Michel Zouboulakis, 2010. "Trustworthiness as a Moral Determinant of Economic Activity: Lessons from the Classics," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 209-221, January.
    15. Mario A. Maggioni & Domenico Rossignoli & Simona Beretta & Sara Balestri, 2017. "Trust behind bars: a longitudinal study of inmates? prosocial preferences," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis1701, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    16. M. Bigoni & S. Bortolotti & M. Casari & D. Gambetta, 2012. "Trustworthy by Convention," Working Papers wp827, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    17. By Tyas Prevoo & Bas ter Weel, 2015. "The importance of early conscientiousness for socio-economic outcomes: evidence from the British Cohort Study," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 918-948.
    18. Marina Bianchi, 2015. "Willingness to believe and betrayal aversion: the special role of trust in art exchanges," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 39(2), pages 133-151, May.
    19. Nguyen, Quang & Villeval, Marie Claire & Xu, Hui, 2012. "Trust and Trustworthiness under the Prospect Theory: A Field Experiment in Vietnam," IZA Discussion Papers 6851, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Lukas, Daniel, 2009. "Efficiency effects of cross-border medical demand," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 15/09, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes’ Rule; economic development; identification; instrumental variable estimation; macroeconomic theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:20:y:2019:i:4:p:e831-e851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.