IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/fhecpo/v21y2018i2p20n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of New Drug Launches on Hospitalization in 2015 for 67 Medical Conditions in 15 OECD Countries: A Two-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lichtenberg Frank R.

    (Columbia University, New York, NY, USA)

Abstract

There are two types of prescription drug cost offsets. The first type of cost offset – from prescription drug use – is primarily about the effect of changes in drug quantity (e.g. due to changes in out-of-pocket drug costs) on other medical costs. Previous studies indicate that the cost offsets from prescription drug use may slightly exceed the cost of the drugs themselves. The second type of cost offset – the cost offset from prescription drug innovation – is primarily about the effect of prescription drug quality on other medical costs. Two previous studies (of a single disease or a single country) found that pharmaceutical innovation reduced hospitalization, and that the reduction in hospital cost from the use of newer drugs was considerably greater than the innovation-induced increase in pharmaceutical expenditure. In this study, we reexamine the impact that pharmaceutical innovation has had on hospitalization, employing a different type of 2-way fixed effects research design. In lieu of analyzing different countries over time for a single disease, or different diseases over time for a single country, we estimate the impact that new drug launches that occurred during the period 1982–2015 had on hospitalization in 2015 for 67 diseases in 15 OECD countries. Our models include both country fixed effects and disease fixed effects, which control for the average propensity of people to be hospitalized in each country and from each disease. The number of hospital discharges and days of care in 2015 is significantly inversely related to the number of drugs launched during 1982–2005, but not significantly related to the number of drugs launched after 2005. (Utilization of drugs during the first few years after they are launched is relatively low, and drugs for chronic conditions may have to be consumed for several years to achieve full effectiveness.) The estimates imply that, if no new drugs had been launched after 1981, total days of care in 2015 would have been 163% higher than it actually was. The estimated reduction in 2015 hospital expenditure that may be attributable to post-1981 drug launches was 5.3 times as large as 2015 expenditure on those drugs.

Suggested Citation

  • Lichtenberg Frank R., 2018. "The Impact of New Drug Launches on Hospitalization in 2015 for 67 Medical Conditions in 15 OECD Countries: A Two-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:fhecpo:v:21:y:2018:i:2:p:20:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2018-0009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/fhep-2018-0009
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/fhep-2018-0009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical Services," Reports 43741, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Jerry Hausman, 2001. "Mismeasured Variables in Econometric Analysis: Problems from the Right and Problems from the Left," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 57-67, Fall.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical Services," Reports 43741, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Linn, 2004. "Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1049-1090.
    5. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2017. "The Impact of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Premature Mortality, Hospital Separations, and Cancer Survival in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 353-378, September.
    6. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    7. Gaynor Martin & Li Jian & Vogt William B, 2007. "Substitution, Spending Offsets, and Prescription Drug Benefit Design," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-33, July.
    8. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "Introduction to "The Economics of New Goods"," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of New Goods, pages 1-26, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2009. "Have newer cardiovascular drugs reduced hospitalization? Evidence from longitudinal country‐level data on 20 OECD countries, 1995–2003," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 519-534, May.
    10. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Economics of New Goods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bres96-1.
    11. Frank R. LICHTENBERG, 2018. "The Impact of New Drug Launch on Life-Years Lost in 2015 from 19 Types of Cancer in 36 Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 309-354, September.
    12. Mark Bils, 2004. "Measuring the Growth from Better and Better Goods," NBER Working Papers 10606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1993. "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262570971, April.
    14. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2014. "The Impact of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Disability Days and the Use of Medical Services in the United States, 1997-2010," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 432-480.
    15. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical Services," Reports 43741, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2022. "The effect of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity: Evidence from the U.S. and 26 high-income countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    2. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2024. "Has pharmaceutical innovation reduced the average cost of U.S. health care episodes?," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-31, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2019. "How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A 3-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013," NBER Working Papers 25483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kyoungrae Jung & Roger Feldman & A. McBean, 2014. "Demand for prescription drugs under non-linear pricing in Medicare Part D," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 19-40, March.
    3. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2024. "Has pharmaceutical innovation reduced the average cost of U.S. health care episodes?," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Frank Lichtenberg, 2010. "The Contribution of Pharmaceutical Innovation to Longevity Growth in Germany and France," CESifo Working Paper Series 3095, CESifo.
    5. Buntin Melinda & Hayford Tamara, 2016. "Evidence of Inefficiencies in Practice Patterns: Regional Variation in Medicare Medical and Drug Spending," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 299-331, December.
    6. Frank Lichtenberg, 2012. "Contribution of Pharmaceutical Innovation to Longevity Growth in Germany and France, 2001–7," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 197-211, March.
    7. Katharina E. Blankart & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2020. "Are patients more adherent to newer drugs?," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 605-618, December.
    8. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2006. "The Impact of New Laboratory Procedures and Other Medical Innovations on the Health of Americans, 1990-2003: Evidence from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 12120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Tatar, Mehtap & Çalışkan, Zafer, 2014. "The effect of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity, hospitalization and medical expenditure in Turkey, 1999–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 361-373.
    10. Frank R. Lichtenberg & Gautier Duflos, 2008. "Pharmaceutical innovation and the longevity of Australians: A first look," Advances in Health Economics and Health Services Research, in: Beyond Health Insurance: Public Policy to Improve Health, pages 95-117, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Frank R. LICHTENBERG, 2018. "The Impact of New Drug Launch on Life-Years Lost in 2015 from 19 Types of Cancer in 36 Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 309-354, September.
    12. Frank Lichtenberg, 2011. "The quality of medical care, behavioral risk factors, and longevity growth," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-34, March.
    13. Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2014. "The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in France, 2000–2009," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 107-127.
    14. Xiaotong Niu & Melinda Buntin & Joyce Manchester, 2015. "Changes in Medicare Spending per Beneficiary by Age: Working Paper 2015-08," Working Papers 51027, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Robert Kaestner & Cuping Schiman & G. Caleb Alexander, 2019. "Effects of Prescription Drug Insurance on Hospitalization and Mortality: Evidence from Medicare Part D," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 86(3), pages 595-628, September.
    16. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The association between pharmaceutical innovation and both premature mortality and hospital utilization in Switzerland, 1996–2019," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Jaume Puig‐Junoy & Pilar García‐Gómez & David Casado‐Marín, 2016. "Free Medicines Thanks to Retirement: Impact of Coinsurance Exemption on Pharmaceutical Expenditures and Hospitalization Offsets in a national health service," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 750-767, June.
    18. Redding, Stephen J. & Weinstein, David E., 2016. "A unified approach to estimating demand and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    20. Katharina E. Blankart & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2022. "The Effects of Off-label Drug Use on Disability and Medical Expenditure," NBER Working Papers 30440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pharmaceutical; innovation; hospitalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:fhecpo:v:21:y:2018:i:2:p:20:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.