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Differences between Subjective and Predicted Survival Probabilities and Their Relation to Preventive Care Use

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  • Biró Anikó

    (Department of Health Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fovam ter 8, Budapest 1093, Hungary, (Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Postdoctoral Fellowship Program) The University of Edinburgh – School of Economics, 30 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh EH8 9JT, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

Abstract

I analyse how differences between subjective and predicted survival probabilities are related to preventive healthcare use. Based on the Health and Retirement Study, I find that private information inherent in subjective survival probability affects the decisions on preventive care use: positive and negative deviations between the subjective and predicted survival probabilities both imply lower likelihood of use, the relations with negative deviations being stronger. These results are driven by perceptions verified by later survival and health outcomes. A theoretical model provides explanation for the empirical results, in which preventive care increases the chances of survival, but the benefits of preventive care also vary with the survival probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Biró Anikó, 2016. "Differences between Subjective and Predicted Survival Probabilities and Their Relation to Preventive Care Use," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 807-835, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:16:y:2016:i:2:p:807-835:n:18
    DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2015-0154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Salm, 2010. "Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1040-1057, August.
    2. Todd Elder, 2013. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 569-589, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    preventive healthcare; private information; subjective survival probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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