IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/boe/qbullt/0113.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nowcasting world GDP and trade using global indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Stratford, Kate

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Global activity is a key driver of UK economic growth. Official estimates of world GDP and trade are only available with a lag, but more timely global indicators can give an early steer on growth. Global indicators have been useful in predicting large swings in world activity and have been particularly helpful since the onset of the financial crisis. A combination of these indicators has performed much better at tracking world GDP and trade growth since 2008 than a simple benchmark model. The global manufacturing PMI export orders index has been the single best indicator during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Stratford, Kate, 2013. "Nowcasting world GDP and trade using global indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 233-242.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2013/nowcasting-world-gdp-and-trade-using-global-indicators.pdf?la=en&hash=9B32E2191583685E1A5A813AEF6BC985F9711C62
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domit, Silvia & Shakir, Tamarah, 2010. "Interpreting the world trade collapse," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(3), pages 183-189.
    2. Haddow, Abigail & Hare, Chris & Hooley, John & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(2), pages 100-109.
    3. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    4. James Mitchell, 2009. "Where Are We Now? The Uk Recession And Nowcasting Gdp Growth Using Statistical Models," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 209(1), pages 60-69, July.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    6. James Rossiter, 2010. "Nowcasting the Global Economy," Discussion Papers 10-12, Bank of Canada.
    7. Wheeler, Tracy, 2010. "What can we learn from surveys of business expectations?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(3), pages 190-198.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bell, Venetia & Co, Lai Wah & Stone, Sophie & Wallis, gavin`, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    3. Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    5. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 917-945, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    3. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 743-766, May.
    4. Chowla, Shiv & Quaglietti, Lucia & Rachel, Lukasz, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 167-179.
    5. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2020. "Common and country-specific uncertainty fluctuations in oil-producing countries : Measures, macroeconomic effects and policy challenges," Post-Print hal-02929898, HAL.
    6. Radoslaw Sobko & Maria Klonowska-Matynia, 2021. "The Relationship between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 198-219.
    7. Sangeeta Das & Dipankor Coondoo, 2018. "Is PMI Useful in Quarterly GDP Growth Forecasts for India? An Exploratory Note," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 199-207, December.
    8. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    9. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    10. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Carrion, Allen & Tuttle, Laura & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2016. "Liquidity, resiliency and market quality around predictable trades: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 142-166.
    11. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    12. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    13. Mongi Arfaoui & Aymen Ben Rejeb, 2017. "Oil, gold, US dollar and stock market interdependencies: a global analytical insight," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 278-293, October.
    14. Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
    15. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    16. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    17. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    18. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Assessing the extreme risk spillovers of international commodities on maritime markets: A GARCH-Copula-CoVaR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Haugom, Erik & Mydland, Ørjan & Pichler, Alois, 2016. "Long term oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-94.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publications Group (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.