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Risk-return relationships and asymmetric adjustment in the UK housing market

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  • Bruce Morley
  • Dennis Thomas

Abstract

This study employs an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean (EGARCH-M) model to determine whether regional house prices in the UK share any of the properties associated with assets such as equities. The results suggest there is some evidence of a positive risk-return relationship as well as evidence of asymmetric adjustment, implying housing should be treated similarly to other assets, with important implications for the pricing of risk by mortgage lenders. However there are differences across the regions, which can be partially explained by using London house prices as a determinant of other regional prices and incorporating interest rates into the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2011. "Risk-return relationships and asymmetric adjustment in the UK housing market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 735-742.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:10:p:735-742
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.535782
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of UK House Price Risk Variation by Property Type," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 45-56, May.
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2017. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-112.
    3. Kyriaki Begiazi & Paraskevi Katsiampa, 2019. "Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 290-309, February.
    4. Paraskevi Katsiampa & Kyriaki Begiazi, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Scottish housing market by property type," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(4), pages 559-583, September.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Floros, Christos, 2015. "Dynamic Connectedness of UK Regional Property Prices," MPRA Paper 68421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christos S. Savva & Nektarios A. Michail, 2017. "Modelling house price volatility states in Cyprus with switching ARCH models," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 11(1), pages 69-82, June.
    7. Chyi Lin Lee, 2017. "An examination of the risk-return relation in the Australian housing market," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 431-449, June.

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