IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v46y2023i5p1423-1443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate regimes and current account persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Fu‐Min Tseng
  • Jyh‐Lin Wu

Abstract

We empirically examine Friedman's hypothesis that floating exchange rates facilitate current account adjustments. The main innovation in the empirical analysis is to control for the sample selection bias. We provide robust evidence that current account persistence decreases with the flexibility of nominal exchange rate regimes and is significantly higher under hard pegs than under floating for industrial countries. The economic driving force of this finding is that the channel of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism dominates in affecting the real exchange rate persistence relative to its shock channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Fu‐Min Tseng & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2023. "Exchange rate regimes and current account persistence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1423-1443, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:46:y:2023:i:5:p:1423-1443
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13325
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.13325?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaoyi Mu & Haichun Ye, 2013. "Current Account Adjustment In Developing Countries: The Role Of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1566-1581, April.
    2. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    3. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Mendola, Mariapia, 2007. "Agricultural technology adoption and poverty reduction: A propensity-score matching analysis for rural Bangladesh," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 372-393, June.
    5. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "Estimating the Benefit Incidence of an Antipoverty Program by Propensity-Score Matching," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 19-30, January.
    6. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2014. "Mussa redux and conditional PPP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 101-114.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    8. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    9. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "Wearing corset, losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-155.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    12. Delgado, Francisco A., 1991. "Hysteresis, menu costs, and pricing with random exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-484, December.
    13. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2005. "Exchange rate regimes and inflation: only hard pegs make a difference," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 1453-1471, November.
    14. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 80-95.
    15. Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and current account adjustment: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 69-93.
    16. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
    17. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    18. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    20. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2013. "Is the exchange rate regime really irrelevant for external adjustment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 104-109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng-Hao Lai & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2023. "Evaluating the Treatment Effect of Hard Pegs: New Wine in Old Bottles," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 813-830, September.
    2. Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and current account adjustment: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 69-93.
    3. Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2015. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-74.
    4. C Katseli & A Theofilakou & K Zekente, 2020. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation Preferences: New Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Inflation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Jo‐wei Wu & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2018. "Does The Launch Of The Euro Hinder The Current Account Adjustment Of The Eurozone?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1116-1135, April.
    6. José Antonio Ocampo, 2017. "Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System," Books, Red Investigadores de Economía, number 2017-11, March.
    7. Kadjatou Dakoure & Mahamadou Diarra & M. Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2023. "Role of the choice of exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignments in South Sahara African countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 425-455, July.
    8. Wu, Jo-Wei & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2018. "Does a flexible exchange rate regime increase inflation persistence?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 244-263.
    9. Nasr G. Elbahnasawy & Michael A. Ellis, 2016. "Economic Structure And Seigniorage: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 940-965, April.
    10. Camarero, Mariam & Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Effects of external imbalances on GDP recovery patterns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 349-362.
    11. Philipp Harms & Jakub Knaze, 2021. "Effective Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation," Working Papers 2102, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    12. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    13. Zhang, Zhongxia & Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Foreign Exchange Reserve Movements? Financial Dollarization in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 120822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Harkmann, Kersti & Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Current account drivers and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Suh, Jae-Hyun, 2022. "The Effects of Flight on Growth and Investmentin Emerging Markets," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 63(1), pages 51-71, June.
    16. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Monetary Policy Spillovers under Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 98852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Enders, Almira & Enders, Zeno & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2018. "International financial market integration, asset compositions, and the falling exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 151-175.
    18. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2020. "Currency composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Mariam Camarero & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "External imbalances and recoveries," Working Papers 1912, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    20. Kersti Harkmann & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:46:y:2023:i:5:p:1423-1443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.