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COVID‐19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?

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  • Martina Aronica
  • Pietro Pizzuto
  • Caterina Sciortino

Abstract

The impact of the COVID‐19 crisis on tourism flows is without precedent in terms of speed and severity. In this paper, we try to infer a possible future scenario for the tourism sector, evaluating the medium‐term effects of past pandemics on tourist arrivals. We find that pandemics lead to a persistent decline in tourist arrivals, with the effects being larger in developing and emerging countries. Interestingly, the effects are heterogeneous across countries and episodes, and depend on several economic conditions such as the overall health system performance, the severity of the shock, and the uncertainty induced by the pandemic event.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Aronica & Pietro Pizzuto & Caterina Sciortino, 2022. "COVID‐19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 430-444, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:430-444
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Parvaneh Sobhani & Hadi Veisi & Hassan Esmaeilzadeh & Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi & Marina Viorela Marcu & Isabelle D. Wolf, 2022. "Tracing the Impact Pathways of COVID-19 on Tourism and Developing Strategies for Resilience and Adaptation in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Maksim Godovykh & Jorge Ridderstaat & Carissa Baker & Alan Fyall, 2021. "COVID-19 and Tourism: Analyzing the Effects of COVID-19 Statistics and Media Coverage on Attitudes toward Tourism," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-14, November.

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