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Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods

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  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari
  • Adeolu O. Adewuyi
  • David Roubaud

Abstract

This study examined the dependence between gold and stocks during 2002–18 in seven emerging countries. The study combined the bivariate cross‐quantilogram introduced recently with quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) approaches to conduct comprehensive and complementary analyses. The QQR results for the full sample revealed a weak positive dependence in all the quantiles of gold and stock returns across all the countries selected during mild market conditions. The results for pre and post‐crisis periods largely were consistent with those obtained for the full sample, except for Turkey (pre‐crisis), and China and Indonesia (post‐crisis). The results of the causality test‐in‐mean (return) and that of the causality test‐in‐variance revealed no causal relation between stock and gold in the pre‐crisis period, while causality ran only from gold to some stocks in the post‐crisis period. Further, while there was volatility causality running only from gold to stocks during the pre‐crisis period, the volatility causality between the two markets was very high during the post‐crisis period. Therefore, we suggest that gold may have been a hedge for stocks during the pre‐crisis compared to the post‐crisis period. Further, international risk factors should be considered in optimal investment decisions between domestic and global markets' assets (stocks and gold).

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Adeolu O. Adewuyi & David Roubaud, 2019. "Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 2172-2214, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:7:p:2172-2214
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12775
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim Hiang Liow, 2022. "Exploring a Three-Factor Dependence Structure of Conditional Volatilities: Some Quantile Regression Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Qureshi, Fiza & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between gold and Islamic stocks in bearish, normal and bullish market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2021. "Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 214-235.
    4. Ugur Korkut Pata & Ojonugwa Usman & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Oktay Ozkan, 2024. "Stock Returns, Crude Oil and Gold Prices in Turkey: Evidence from Rolling Window-Based Nonparametric Quantile Causality Test," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 779-797, September.
    5. Woraphon Yamaka & Paravee Maneejuk, 2020. "Analyzing the Causality and Dependence between Gold Shocks and Asian Emerging Stock Markets: A Smooth Transition Copula Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Hung, Ngo Thai & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Directional spillover effects and time-frequency nexus between oil, gold and stock markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Chen, Qitong & Zhu, Huiming & Yu, Dongwei & Hau, Liya, 2022. "How does investor attention matter for crude oil prices and returns? Evidence from time-frequency quantile causality analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Erkut, Burak & Mundi, Hardeep Singh, 2021. "Exploring the nexus between non-renewable and renewable energy consumptions and economic development: Evidence from panel estimations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Zeinedini, Sh & Karimi, M. Sh & Khanzadi, A., 2022. "Impact of global oil and gold prices on the Iran stock market returns during the Covid-19 pandemic using the quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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