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Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

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  • Jan Hagemejer
  • Jakub Mućk

Abstract

In this study, we assess the importance of exports and global value chain (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive data set, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEECs with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyse the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analysed period of 1995–2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.Jel classificationC23, F21, O33

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  • Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2019. "Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1994-2025, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:7:p:1994-2025
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12790
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak & Jakub Mućk, 2022. "Global Value Chains and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Central European Economies," NBP Working Papers 354, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effects of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences Offered by QUAD Countries on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(1), pages 33-68.
    3. Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    4. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Hosein, Roger & Satnarine-Singh, Nirvana & Saridakis, George, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Exports: An Analysis of Caribbean SIDs," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 1-28.
    6. Muhammad Azam & Saleem Khan, 2022. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and economic growth: Further empirical evidence from the developed and developing world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4224-4243, October.
    7. Shuang Meng & Huan Yan & Jiajie Yu, 2022. "Global Value Chain Participation and Green Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Maja Bašiæ & Mile Bošnjak & Ivan Novak, 2023. "Productivity shocks and industry specific effects on export and internationalisation: VAR approach," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 41(1), pages 113-156.
    9. Maciej Stefański, 2020. "To What Extent does Convergence Explain the Slowdown in Potential Growth of the CEE Countries Following the Global Financial Crisis?," KAE Working Papers 2020-058, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    10. Grodzicki, Maciej J. & Możdżeń, Michał, 2021. "Central and Eastern European economies in a Goldilocks age: A model of labor market institutional choice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman, 2021. "Analysis of Export Determinants in Sudan by Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 10, July.
    12. Gereben, Áron & Wruuck, Patricia, 2021. "Towards a new growth model in CESEE: Convergence and competitiveness through smart, green and inclusive investment," EIB Working Papers 2021/01, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    13. Xiao Dai & Liang Yan & Liu Jianping & JianWu, 2022. "A research on the threshold effect of human capital structure upgrading and industrial structure upgrading—based on the perspective of path dependence," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2645-2674, August.
    14. Hagemejer Jan & Michałek Jan J. & Svatko Pavel, 2021. "Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 126-143, January.
    15. Nacewska-Twardowska Aleksandra, 2022. "Poland and global value chains at the beginning of the 21st century – An opportunity or a threat?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 58(1), pages 33-43, March.
    16. Roberta Capello & Roberto Dellisanti & Giovanni Perucca, 2024. "At the territorial roots of global processes: Heterogeneous modes of regional involvement in Global Value Chains," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 56(3), pages 833-848, May.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Carlos A. Carrasco & Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2021. "Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 919-941, November.

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