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Three Roads to Populism? An Italian Field Study on the 2019 European Election

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  • Michele Roccato
  • Nicoletta Cavazza
  • Pasquale Colloca
  • Silvia Russo

Abstract

Objectives We predicted populist orientation and vote for two populist parties, the Five Star Movement (FSM) and the League, in the 2019 European election by focusing on perceived economic threat, perceived cultural threat, dissatisfaction with representative democracy, and on first‐order interactions. Method We surveyed a quota sample of the Italian adult general population (N = 1,504) and tested a latent moderated structural equations model aimed at predicting participants’ populist vote and populist orientation. Results Perceived cultural threat and dissatisfaction with democracy were positively associated with populist orientation. Dissatisfaction with democracy was positively associated with votes for the FSM, while perceived cultural threat was positively associated with votes for the League. Perceived economic threat was negatively associated with votes for the League. Conclusion Populist orientation and populist vote share just some predictors, and are associated with main effects only, but not with interactions between perceived cultural, economic, and political variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Roccato & Nicoletta Cavazza & Pasquale Colloca & Silvia Russo, 2020. "Three Roads to Populism? An Italian Field Study on the 2019 European Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1222-1235, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:101:y:2020:i:4:p:1222-1235
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12834
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Margaret Canovan, 1999. "Trust the People! Populism and the Two Faces of Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 47(1), pages 2-16, March.
    2. Michele Roccato & Piergiorgio Corbetta & Nicoletta Cavazza & Pasquale Colloca, 2019. "Assessment of Citizens’ Populist Orientations: Development and Validation of the POPulist ORientation (POPOR) Scale," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 100(6), pages 2148-2167, October.
    3. Po-Hsien Huang, 2017. "Asymptotics of AIC, BIC, and RMSEA for Model Selection in Structural Equation Modeling," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 407-426, June.
    4. Stephen Quinlan & Deirdre Tinney, 2019. "Populist Wave or Metamorphosis of a Chameleon? Populist Attitudes and the Vote in 2016 in the United States and Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(2), pages 281-324.
    5. Teney, Céline & Lacewell, Onawa Promise & De Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Winners and losers of globalization in Europe: attitudes and ideologies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(4), pages 575-595.
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    1. Francesco Pagliacci & Luca Bonacini, 2022. "Explaining The Anti‐Immigrant Sentiment Through a Spatial Analysis: A Study of The 2019 European Elections in Italy," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 113(4), pages 365-381, September.
    2. Tim Friehe & Christian Pfeifer, 2024. "Predicting satisfaction with democracy in Germany using local economic conditions, social capital, and individual characteristics," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 335-377, September.

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