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The Tax‐smoothing Hypothesis: Evidence from Sweden, 1952–1999

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  • Johan Adler

Abstract

This paper tests Barro's (1979) tax‐smoothing hypothesis using Swedish central government data for the period 1952–1999. According to the tax‐smoothing hypothesis, the government sets the budget surplus equal to expected changes in government expenditure. When expenditure is expected to increase, the government runs a budget surplus, and when expenditure is expected to fall, the government runs a budget deficit. The empirical evidence suggests that the model provides a useful benchmark and that tax‐smoothing behavior can explain about 60 percent of the variability in the Swedish central government budget surplus.

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  • Johan Adler, 2006. "The Tax‐smoothing Hypothesis: Evidence from Sweden, 1952–1999," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 81-95, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:108:y:2006:i:1:p:81-95
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2006.00442.x
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    3. Constantine Angyridis & Leo Michelis, 2021. "Structural breaks, debt limits and the tax smoothing hypothesis: theory and evidence from the OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1283-1307, March.
    4. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Foued Badr GABSI & Ameni MTIBAA, 2018. "Tax smoothing hypothesis: The Tunisian case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 169-178, Winter.
    5. Gerhard Reitschuler, 2010. "Fiscal Policy And Optimal Taxation: Evidence From A Tax Smoothing Exercise," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 238-252, May.
    6. Ihtsham ul Haq PADDA*, 2010. "On Minimizing the Welfare Cost of Fiscal Policy:Pakistan’s Case," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 20, pages 77-99.
    7. Emilio Congregado & Vicente Esteve & Juan A. María A. Prats, 2024. "Optimal public deficit and tax-smoothing in the Spanish economy, 1850-2022," Working Papers 2401, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

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