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A Theoretical Model of Financial Crisis

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  • Jorge A. Chan‐Lau
  • Zhaohui Chen

Abstract

The paper develops a new model of private debt financing with an inefficient financial system at its core, where inefficiency is characterized by costly loan monitoring. The model suggests a mechanism that generates the following series of events: a period of low capital inflow despite high rates of economic growth (capital inflow inertia), as observed in the take‐off era in the Asian tiger economies; followed by a sudden acceleration of capital inflow (as seen in the 1990s); and then by a crisis, which is defined as a large reduction in the amount of loans intermediated by the financial system (i.e., a large capital outflow or credit crunch). Under certain conditions, financial crisis can occur even when economic fundamentals and market sentiment change only slightly. Unlike most credit rationing models, the results presented here do not hinge on the assumption of asymmetric information. The model also provides guidance about the appropriate policy responses to an imminent crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge A. Chan‐Lau & Zhaohui Chen, 2002. "A Theoretical Model of Financial Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 53-63, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:53-63
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9396.00317
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Derviz & Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "Cross-Border Lending Contagion in Multinational Banks," Working Papers 2006/9, Czech National Bank.
    2. Jianbo Gao & Jing Hu & Xiang Mao & Mi Zhou & Brian Gurbaxani & Johnny Lin, 2011. "Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(10), pages 1-6, October.
    3. Shaffer, Sherrill & Hoover, Scott, 2008. "Endogenous screening, credit crunches, and competition in laxity," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 296-314, December.
    4. Gao, Jianbo & Hu, Jing, 2014. "Financial crisis, Omori's law, and negative entropy flow," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 79-86.
    5. Sina T. Ates & Felipe E. Saffie, 2021. "Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 304-356, July.
    6. Alexis Derviz, 2007. "Cross-Border Risk Transmission by a Multinational Bank," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 87-111, March.
    7. Stefan Eichler & Dominik Maltritz, 2011. "Stock Market‐Induced Currency Crises—A New Type of Twins," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 223-236, May.

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