IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v51y2023i2p338-371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Where is the opportunity in opportunity zones?

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Sage
  • Mike Langen
  • Alex van de Minne

Abstract

In December 2017, the U.S. Congress passed into law the Opportunity Zone (OZ) program. As an OZ, designated low‐income census tracts provide considerable tax breaks to property investors, intending to attract investments and spur economic growth. As the success of the program is dependent on investors' responses, we analyze market reactions in a difference‐in‐differences framework. We identify two potential effects on property markets: tax breaks for investors and expected land value appreciation. Our results show that tax breaks are priced efficiently. Qualified properties increase by 7–20% in price, while vacant land increase up to 37%. In contrast, we find limited signs of expected land value appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Sage & Mike Langen & Alex van de Minne, 2023. "Where is the opportunity in opportunity zones?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 338-371, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:51:y:2023:i:2:p:338-371
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12429
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1540-6229.12429?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Albouy & Gabriel Ehrlich & Minchul Shin, 2018. "Metropolitan Land Values," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 454-466, July.
    2. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    3. Dragana Cvijanović & Stanimira Milcheva & Alex Minne, 2022. "Preferences of Institutional Investors in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 321-359, August.
    4. Robert T. Greenbaum & John B. Engberg, 2004. "The impact of state enterprise zones on urban manufacturing establishments," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 315-339.
    5. Marc K. Francke & Alex M. Minne, 2017. "Land, Structure and Depreciation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 415-451, April.
    6. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
    7. Papke, Leslie E., 1994. "Tax policy and urban development : Evidence from the Indiana enterprise zone program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-49, May.
    8. Coulson, N. Edward & McMillen, Daniel P., 2008. "Estimating time, age and vintage effects in housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 138-151, June.
    9. Leslie E. Papke, 1993. "What Do We Know about Enterprise Zones?," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 7, pages 37-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    11. David H. Autor, 2003. "Outsourcing at Will: The Contribution of Unjust Dismissal Doctrine to the Growth of Employment Outsourcing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-42, January.
    12. Corinth, Kevin & Feldman, Naomi E., 2022. "The Impact of Opportunity Zones on Commercial Investment and Economic Activity," IZA Discussion Papers 15247, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Gerardi, Kristopher & Rosenblatt, Eric & Willen, Paul S. & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Foreclosure externalities: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 42-56.
    14. Brantly Callaway & Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment," Papers 2107.02637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    15. Matias Busso & Jesse Gregory & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 897-947, April.
    16. Hulten, Charles R & Wykoff, Frank C, 1996. "Issues in the Measurement of Economic Depreciation: Introductory Remarks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 10-23, January.
    17. Marc Francke & Alex Van de Minne, 2021. "Modeling unobserved heterogeneity in hedonic price models," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1315-1339, December.
    18. Joel A. Elvery, 2009. "The Impact of Enterprise Zones on Resident Employment," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(1), pages 44-59, February.
    19. Boarnet, Marlon G. & Bogart, William T., 1996. "Enterprise Zones and Employment: Evidence from New Jersey," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 198-215, September.
    20. Freedman, Matthew, 2012. "Teaching new markets old tricks: The effects of subsidized investment on low-income neighborhoods," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1000-1014.
    21. Sheharyar Bokhari & David Geltner, 2018. "Characteristics of Depreciation in Commercial and Multifamily Property: An Investment Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 745-782, December.
    22. Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-345, September.
    23. Alan H. Peters & Peter S. Fisher, 2002. "State Enterprise Zone Programs: Have They Worked?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number sezp, December.
    24. Neumark, David & Kolko, Jed, 2010. "Do enterprise zones create jobs? Evidence from California's enterprise zone program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, July.
    25. John M. Clapp & Jyh-Bang Jou & Tan (Charlene) Lee, 2012. "Hedonic Models with Redevelopment Options under Uncertainty," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 197-216, June.
    26. Hulten, Charles R. & Wykoff, Frank C., 1981. "The estimation of economic depreciation using vintage asset prices : An application of the Box-Cox power transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 367-396, April.
    27. Brent C. Smith, 2009. "If You Promise to Build It, Will They Come? The Interaction between Local Economic Development Policy and the Real Estate Market: Evidence from Tax Increment Finance Districts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 209-234, June.
    28. Krupka, Douglas J. & Noonan, Douglas S., 2009. "Empowerment Zones, neighborhood change and owner-occupied housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 386-396, July.
    29. Marlon G. Boarnet, 2001. "Enterprise Zones and Job Creation: Linking Evaluation and Practice," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 15(3), pages 242-254, August.
    30. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    31. Sheharyar Bokhari & David Geltner, 2019. "Commercial Buildings Capital Consumption and the United States National Accounts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(3), pages 561-591, September.
    32. David Geltner & Anil Kumar & Alex M. Van de Minne, 2020. "Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 406-445, June.
    33. Ho, Daniel E. & Imai, Kosuke & King, Gary & Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2007. "Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 199-236, July.
    34. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lambert, Thomas, 2024. "Louisville’s Economic Opportunity Zones: A Rerun of the Old Louisville Enterprise Zone Program?," MPRA Paper 121223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. James Alm & Trey Dronyk‐Trosper & Sean Larkin, 2024. "Do opportunity zones create opportunities? The impact of opportunity zones on real estate prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(1), pages 214-238, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2014. "People, Places, and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 629-662, August.
    2. Neumark, David & Simpson, Helen, 2015. "Place-Based Policies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1197-1287, Elsevier.
    3. Sumei Zhang, 2019. "Rethinking U.S. enterprise zones: The role of research design in program evaluation," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 34(6), pages 545-571, September.
    4. Neumark, David & Kolko, Jed, 2010. "Do enterprise zones create jobs? Evidence from California's enterprise zone program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Ham, John C. & Swenson, Charles & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Song, Heonjae, 2011. "Government programs can improve local labor markets: Evidence from State Enterprise Zones, Federal Empowerment Zones and Federal Enterprise Community," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 779-797, August.
    6. Nidhi Chaudhary & Jonathan Potter, 2019. "Evaluation of the local employment impacts of enterprise zones: A critique," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(10), pages 2112-2159, August.
    7. Sumei Zhang, 2015. "Impacts of Enterprise Zone Policy on Industry Growth," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 29(4), pages 347-362, November.
    8. David Neumark & Timothy Young, 2021. "Heterogeneous Effects of State Enterprise Zone Programs in the Shorter Run and Longer Run," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(2), pages 91-107, May.
    9. Robert T. Greenbaum & Jim Landers, 2009. "Why Are State Policy Makers Still Proponents of Enterprise Zones? What Explains Their Action in the Face of a Preponderance of the Research?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 32(4), pages 466-479, October.
    10. Andrew Hanson & Shawn Rohlin, 2011. "The Effect of Location-Based Tax Incentives on Establishment Location and Employment across Industry Sectors," Public Finance Review, , vol. 39(2), pages 195-225, March.
    11. Reynolds, C. Lockwood & Rohlin, Shawn M., 2015. "The effects of location-based tax policies on the distribution of household income: Evidence from the federal Empowerment Zone program," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Krupka, Douglas J. & Noonan, Douglas S., 2009. "Neighborhood Dynamics and the Housing Price Effects of Spatially Targeted Economic Development Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 4308, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Jed Kolko & David Neumark, 2010. "Do some enterprise zones create jobs?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 5-38.
    14. Hanson, Andrew & Rohlin, Shawn, 2013. "Do spatially targeted redevelopment programs spillover?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 86-100.
    15. Givord, Pauline & Quantin, Simon & Trevien, Corentin, 2018. "A long-term evaluation of the first generation of French urban enterprise zones," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 149-161.
    16. Gibbons, Stephen & Overman, Henry & Sarvimäki, Matti, 2021. "The local economic impacts of regeneration projects: Evidence from UK's single regeneration budget," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Krupka, Douglas J. & Noonan, Douglas S., 2009. "Empowerment Zones, neighborhood change and owner-occupied housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 386-396, July.
    18. Thierry Mayer & Florian Mayneris & Loriane Py, 2017. "The impact of Urban Enterprise Zones on establishment location decisions and labor market outcomes: evidence from France," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 709-752.
    19. Miren Lafourcade & Florian Mayneris, 2017. "En Finir avec les ghettos urbains ?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01884340, HAL.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l4arseauo82kr3cm0qr8uihmg is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Thierry Mayer & Florian Mayneris & Loriane Py, 2017. "The impact of Urban Enterprise Zones on establishment location decisions and labor market outcomes: evidence from France," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 709-752.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:51:y:2023:i:2:p:338-371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.