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Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market

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  • Yuming Fu
  • Wenlan Qian

Abstract

type="main"> This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique data set of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction traits associated with short-term speculation can be identified. In the cross-section of housing projects, a 10-percentage-point increase in trading activity following a strong short-run market price rise predicts a negative subsequent monthly price change of 0.5% at the project level. Moreover, the price reversal effect associated with the momentum trading by short-term speculators is two to three times stronger, and holding such trading constant, momentum trading in general has little additional impact. Our findings further suggest that momentum trading by short-term speculators contributes to price overreaction largely in submarkets with lower information efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 977-1007, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:42:y:2014:i:4:p:977-1007
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1540-6229.12071
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    Cited by:

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    2. Trond-Arne Borgersen & Anne Wenche Emblem, 2022. "Mortgage Market Induced Booms and Busts in the Housing Market in a Modified DiPasquale-Wheaton Model," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 281-306.
    3. Henry J. Munneke & Joseph T. L. Ooi & C. F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2019. "Testing for Price Anomalies in Sequential Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 517-543, May.
    4. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    5. Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian & Bernard Yeung, 2016. "Speculative Investors and Transactions Tax: Evidence from the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(11), pages 3254-3270, November.
    6. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    7. Diao, Mi & Fan, Yi & Sing, Tien Foo, 2021. "Rational pricing responses of developers to supply shocks: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 802-815.
    8. Shulin Shen & Yiyi Zhao & Jindong Pang, 2024. "Local Housing Market Sentiments and Returns: Evidence from China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 488-522, April.
    9. Quan Gan & Maggie Rong Hu & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2022. "Contract rescission in the real estate presale market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1054-1106, December.
    10. Pace, R. Kelley & Zhu, Shuang, 2019. "The influence of house, seller, and locational factors on the probability of sale," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-82.
    11. Mark Schaub, 2021. "Government Agency Product Endorsements and Stock Valuations: A COVID-19 Event Study," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(5), pages 1-1, May.
    12. Deng, Kuang Kuang & Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Tse, Kwok Sang, 2022. "Do real estate investors trade on momentum?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Xiangou Deng & Zhaohui Li & Michael J. Seiler & Hua Sun, 2024. "Market Strength and Brokerage Choice in Residential Housing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 741-777, November.

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