IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/randje/v52y2021i1p207-245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

No reliance on guidance: counter‐signaling in management forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Cyrus Aghamolla
  • Carlos Corona
  • Ronghuo Zheng

Abstract

This study presents and provides an explanation for a novel stylized fact: both high‐performing and troubled companies withhold issuing earnings guidance. We assume that the manager's ability affects the level of earnings and the accuracy of guidance, but issuing a forecast is costless for all manager types. Managers are thus able to signal their ability through accuracy in their forecasts. While high ability managers would seem to benefit the most from issuing guidance, in equilibrium we find that both high and low ability managers withhold issuing guidance, while intermediate types forecast. Hence, high ability managers counter‐signal in equilibrium, which does not result in a subsequent “punishment” by the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Cyrus Aghamolla & Carlos Corona & Ronghuo Zheng, 2021. "No reliance on guidance: counter‐signaling in management forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(1), pages 207-245, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:randje:v:52:y:2021:i:1:p:207-245
    DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12367
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12367
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1756-2171.12367?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viral V. Acharya & Peter DeMarzo & Ilan Kremer, 2011. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2955-2979, December.
    2. Teoh, Siew Hong & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1991. "Nondisclosure and Adverse Disclosure as Signals of Firm Value," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 283-313.
    3. Frank S. Zhou & Yuqing Zhou, 2020. "The Dog that Did Not Bark: Limited Price Efficiency and Strategic Nondisclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 155-197, March.
    4. Göx, Robert F. & Wagenhofer, Alfred, 2009. "Optimal impairment rules," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 2-16, October.
    5. Francois Brochet & Lucile Faurel & Sarah Mcvay, 2011. "Manager‐Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 1123-1162, December.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J, 1981. "The Informational Role of Warranties and Private Disclosure about Product Quality," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 461-483, December.
    7. Nick Feltovich & Richmond Harbaugh & Ted To, 2002. "Too Cool for School? Signalling and Countersignalling," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(4), pages 630-649, Winter.
    8. Diamond, Douglas W & Verrecchia, Robert E, 1991. "Disclosure, Liquidity, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1325-1359, September.
    9. Trueman, Brett, 1986. "Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-71, March.
    10. Ramakrishnan, Ram T. S. & Wen, Xiaoyan, 2016. "Meeting Company-Issued Guidance and Management Guidance Strategy," Journal of Law, Finance, and Accounting, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 319-359, December.
    11. Luis Rayo & Ilya Segal, 2010. "Optimal Information Disclosure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 949-987.
    12. Arya, Anil & Mittendorf, Brian, 2005. "Using disclosure to influence herd behavior and alter competition," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 231-246, December.
    13. Bipin Ajinkya & Sanjeev Bhojraj & Partha Sengupta, 2005. "The Association between Outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 343-376, June.
    14. Chen, Shuping & Matsumoto, Dawn & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2011. "Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 134-150, February.
    15. Aghamolla, Cyrus & An, Byeong-Je, 2021. "Voluntary disclosure with evolving news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 21-53.
    16. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2008. "Boards: Does one size fit all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 329-356, February.
    17. Chen, Shuping & Matsumoto, Dawn & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2011. "Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 134-150.
    18. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
    19. Alex Edmans & Mirko S. Heinle & Chong Huang, 2016. "The Real Costs of Financial Efficiency When Some Information Is Soft," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2151-2182.
    20. Arya, Anil & Mittendorf, Brian, 2016. "On the synergy between disclosure and investment beauty contests," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 255-273.
    21. Marinovic, Iván & Sridhar, Sri S., 2015. "Discretionary disclosures using a certifier," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bertomeu, Jeremy, 2024. "Disclosure paternalism," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2).
    2. Aghamolla, Cyrus & Smith, Kevin, 2023. "Strategic complexity in disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    2. Seo, Hojun, 2021. "Peer effects in corporate disclosure decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1).
    3. Imhof, Michael J & Seavey, Scott E., 2018. "How investors value cash and cash flows when managers commit to providing earnings forecasts," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 74-87.
    4. Kristian D. Allee & Theodore E. Christensen & Bryan S. Graden & Kenneth J. Merkley, 2021. "The Genesis of Voluntary Disclosure: An Analysis of Firms’ First Earnings Guidance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1914-1938, March.
    5. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    6. Aghamolla, Cyrus & An, Byeong-Je, 2021. "Voluntary disclosure with evolving news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 21-53.
    7. Elaine Ying Wang & Hun‐Tong Tan, 2013. "The Effects of Guidance Frequency and Guidance Goal on Managerial Decisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 673-700, June.
    8. Francois Brochet & Lucile Faurel & Sarah Mcvay, 2011. "Manager‐Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 1123-1162, December.
    9. Yongtae Kim & Lixin (Nancy) Su & Xindong (Kevin) Zhu, 2017. "Does the cessation of quarterly earnings guidance reduce investors’ short-termism?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 715-752, June.
    10. Davide Cianciaruso & Sri S. Sridhar, 2018. "Mandatory and Voluntary Disclosures: Dynamic Interactions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 1253-1283, September.
    11. Ruth V. Aguilera & Kurt A. Desender & Mónica López-Puertas Lamy & Jun Ho Lee, 2017. "The governance impact of a changing investor landscape," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(2), pages 195-221, February.
    12. Michael D. Grubb, 2011. "Developing a Reputation for Reticence," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 225-268, March.
    13. Elchanan Ben-Porath & Eddie Dekel & Barton L Lipman, 2018. "Disclosure and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1471-1501.
    14. Anna Boisits & Roland Königsgruber, 2016. "Information acquisition and disclosure by firms in the presence of additional available information," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 177-205, March.
    15. Bertomeu, Jeremy & Marinovic, Iván & Terry, Stephen J. & Varas, Felipe, 2022. "The dynamics of concealment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 227-246.
    16. Evgeny Petrov, 2020. "Voluntary Disclosure and Informed Trading," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 2257-2286, December.
    17. Jia-Wen Liang & Mei-Feng Lin & Chen-Lung Chin, 2012. "Does foreign institutional ownership motivate firms in an emerging market to increase voluntary disclosure? Evidence from Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 55-76, July.
    18. Arianna Degan & Ming Li, 2021. "Persuasion with costly precision," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(3), pages 869-908, October.
    19. Sinclair-Desgagne, Bernard & Gozlan, Estelle, 2003. "A theory of environmental risk disclosure," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 377-393, March.
    20. Hirshleifer, David & Lim, Seongyeon & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2004. "Disclosure to an Audience with Limited Attention," Working Paper Series 2004-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:randje:v:52:y:2021:i:1:p:207-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/randdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.