IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popmgt/v32y2023i8p2455-2474.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ICU capacity expansion under uncertainty in the early stages of a pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Maria Gambaro
  • Gianluca Fusai
  • ManMohan S. Sodhi
  • Caterina May
  • Chiara Morelli

Abstract

We propose a general modular approach to support decision‐makers' response in the early stages of a pandemic with resource expansion, motivated by the shortage of Covid‐19‐related intensive care units (ICU) capacity in 2020 in Italy. Our approach uses (1) a stochastic extension of an epidemic model for scenarios of projected infections, (2) a capacity load model to translate infections into scenarios of demand for the resources of interest, and (3) an optimization model to allocate this demand to the projected levels of resources based on different values of investment. We demonstrate this approach with the onset of the first and second Covid‐19 waves in three Italian regions, using the data available at that time. For epidemic modeling, we used a parsimonious stochastic susceptible‐infected‐removed model with a robust estimation procedure based on bootstrap resampling, suitable for a noisy and data‐limited environment. For capacity loading, we used a Cox queuing model to translate the projected infections into demand for ICU, using stochastic intensity to capture the variability of the patient arrival process. Finally, we used stochastic dynamic optimization to select the best policy (when and how much to expand) to minimize the expected number of patients denied ICU for any level of investment in capacity expansion and obtain an efficient frontier. The frontier allows a trade‐off between investment in additional resources and the number of patients denied intensive care. Moreover, in the panic‐driven early days of a pandemic, decision‐makers can also obtain the time until which they can postpone action, potentially reducing investment costs without increasing the expected number of denied patients.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Maria Gambaro & Gianluca Fusai & ManMohan S. Sodhi & Caterina May & Chiara Morelli, 2023. "ICU capacity expansion under uncertainty in the early stages of a pandemic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(8), pages 2455-2474, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popmgt:v:32:y:2023:i:8:p:2455-2474
    DOI: 10.1111/poms.13985
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13985
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/poms.13985?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhiyuan Chen & Guangwen Kong, 2023. "Hospital admission, facility‐based isolation, and social distancing: An SEIR model with constrained medical resources," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1397-1414, May.
    2. Dimitris Bertsimas & Leonard Boussioux & Ryan Cory-Wright & Arthur Delarue & Vassilis Digalakis & Alexandre Jacquillat & Driss Lahlou Kitane & Galit Lukin & Michael Li & Luca Mingardi & Omid Nohadani , 2021. "From predictions to prescriptions: A data-driven response to COVID-19," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 253-272, June.
    3. Thomas J. Kniesner & W. Kip Viscusi, 2005. "Value of a Statistical Life: Relative Position vs. Relative Age," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 142-146, May.
    4. Hanan Luss, 1982. "Operations Research and Capacity Expansion Problems: A Survey," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 907-947, October.
    5. Onno Boxma & Offer Kella & Michel Mandjes, 2019. "Infinite-server systems with Coxian arrivals," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 233-255, August.
    6. Huiyin Ouyang & Nilay Tanık Argon & Serhan Ziya, 2020. "Allocation of Intensive Care Unit Beds in Periods of High Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 591-608, March.
    7. Apurva Jain & Swapnil Rayal, 2023. "Managing medical equipment capacity with early spread of infection in a region," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(5), pages 1415-1432, May.
    8. David Worthington & Martin Utley & Dan Suen, 2020. "Infinite-server queueing models of demand in healthcare: A review of applications and ideas for further work," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(8), pages 1145-1160, August.
    9. Musen Kingsley Li & ManMohan S. Sodhi & Christopher S. Tang & Jiayi Joey Yu, 2023. "Preparedness with a system integrating inventory, capacity, and capability for future pandemics and other disasters," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(2), pages 564-583, February.
    10. Bahman Naderi & Vahid Roshanaei & Mehmet A. Begen & Dionne M. Aleman & David R. Urbach, 2021. "Increased Surgical Capacity without Additional Resources: Generalized Operating Room Planning and Scheduling," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(8), pages 2608-2635, August.
    11. Ridge, J. C. & Jones, S. K. & Nielsen, M. S. & Shahani, A. K., 1998. "Capacity planning for intensive care units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 346-355, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vissers, Jan M.H. & Adan, Ivo J.B.F. & Dellaert, Nico P., 2007. "Developing a platform for comparison of hospital admission systems: An illustration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(3), pages 1290-1301, August.
    2. Jodlbauer, Herbert & Altendorfer, Klaus, 2010. "Trade-off between capacity invested and inventory needed," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 118-133, May.
    3. Wenbin Wang & Mark E. Ferguson & Shanshan Hu & Gilvan C. Souza, 2013. "Dynamic Capacity Investment with Two Competing Technologies," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 616-629, October.
    4. repec:cty:dpaper:10.1080/0013791x.2011.573615 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fattahi, Mohammad & Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil & Kannan, Devika & Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 192-206.
    6. Petersen, E. R. & Taylor, A. J., 2001. "An investment planning model for a new North-Central railway in Brazil," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 847-862, November.
    7. Ornella Tarola, 2010. "Public Utilities: Privatization without Regulation," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 062-078, March.
    8. Kamath, Narasimha B. & Roy, Rahul, 2007. "Capacity augmentation of a supply chain for a short lifecycle product: A system dynamics framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(2), pages 334-351, June.
    9. Frederick Chou & Hao-Chih Lee & William Yeh, 2013. "Effectiveness and Efficiency of Scheduling Regional Water Resources Projects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(3), pages 665-693, February.
    10. Chervenkova, Tanya & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2023. "Adaptation strategies for building supply chain viability: A case study analysis of the global automotive industry re-purposing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    11. Botor, Benjamin & Böcker, Benjamin & Kallabis, Thomas & Weber, Christoph, 2021. "Information shocks and profitability risks for power plant investments – impacts of policy instruments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Sabet, Ehsan & Yazdani, Baback & Kian, Ramez & Galanakis, Kostas, 2020. "A strategic and global manufacturing capacity management optimisation model: A Scenario-based multi-stage stochastic programming approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Yuta Kanai & Hideaki Takagi, 2021. "Markov chain analysis for the neonatal inpatient flow in a hospital," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 92-116, March.
    14. Dawei (David) Zhang & Barrie R. Nault & Xueqi (David) Wei, 2019. "The Strategic Value of Information Technology in Setting Productive Capacity," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 1124-1144, December.
    15. Anyan Qi & Hyun-Soo Ahn & Amitabh Sinha, 2017. "Capacity Investment with Demand Learning," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 145-164, February.
    16. repec:cty:dpaper:1464 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sanjay Dominik Jena & Jean-François Cordeau & Bernard Gendron, 2015. "Dynamic Facility Location with Generalized Modular Capacities," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 484-499, August.
    18. P R Harper & S Phillips & J E Gallagher, 2005. "Geographical simulation modelling for the regional planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery across London," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(2), pages 134-143, February.
    19. Li, Gang & Jiang, Hongxun & He, Tian, 2015. "A genetic algorithm-based decomposition approach to solve an integrated equipment-workforce-service planning problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Alexander Alekseevich Lazarev & Darya Vladimirovna Lemtyuzhnikova & Mikhail Lvovich Somov, 2022. "Decomposition of the Knapsack Problem for Increasing the Capacity of Operating Rooms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, March.
    21. Hongmin Li & Stephen C. Graves & Woonghee Tim Huh, 2014. "Optimal Capacity Conversion for Product Transitions Under High Service Requirements," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 46-60, February.
    22. Qing Ye & Izak Duenyas, 2007. "Optimal Capacity Investment Decisions with Two-Sided Fixed-Capacity Adjustment Costs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(2), pages 272-283, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popmgt:v:32:y:2023:i:8:p:2455-2474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1937-5956 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.