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Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Marília R. Nepomuceno
  • Ilya Klimkin
  • Dmitri A. Jdanov
  • Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza
  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

Abstract

Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country‐specific, resulting in cross‐country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Marília R. Nepomuceno & Ilya Klimkin & Dmitri A. Jdanov & Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2022. "Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 279-302, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:48:y:2022:i:2:p:279-302
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Murphy, 2017. "Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 257-283, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Francesca Carfora & Albina Orlando, 2023. "A Preliminary Investigation of a Single Shock Impact on Italian Mortality Rates Using STMF Data: A Case Study of COVID-19," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Alois Pichler & Dana Uhlig, 2023. "Mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(20), pages 1-11, October.
    3. Florian Bonnet & Pavel Grigoriev & Markus Sauerberg & Ina Alliger & Michael Mühlichen & Carlo-Giovanni Camarda, 2024. "Spatial disparities in the mortality burden of the covid-19 pandemic across 569 European regions (2020-2021)," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Tu, Yunbo & Meng, Xinzhu & Alzahrani, Abdullah Khames & Zhang, Tonghua, 2023. "Multi-objective optimization and nonlinear dynamics for sub-healthy COVID-19 epidemic model subject to self-diffusion and cross-diffusion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).

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