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How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?

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  • Paul E. Waggoner
  • Jesse H. Ausubel

Abstract

Forests have recently expanded in many countries. The success of the world, including both rich and poor, in following this trend depends on future changes in population, income per capita, appetite, and crop yields. Extended to the year 2050, the strengths of these forces, estimated from experience, project cropland shrinking by nearly 200 million hectares, more than three times the land area of France. Changes in some of the forces, with crop yield the most manageable, could double the shrinkage. Reasonable assumptions about the forces can also make the distribution of spared land between rich and poor countries roughly equal. Although the encroachment factor translating cropland change into forest land change varies greatly, one‐third or more of the cropland spared could become forest.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul E. Waggoner & Jesse H. Ausubel, 2001. "How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 239-257, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:2:p:239-257
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00239.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521580106, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Terheggen, Anne, 2010. "The new kid in the forest: the impact of China's resource demand on Gabon's tropical timber value chain," MPRA Paper 37982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vallino, Elena & Aldahsev,Gani, 2013. "NGOs and participatory conservation in developing countries: why are there inefficiencies?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201318, University of Turin.
    3. Aldashev, Gani & Vallino, Elena, 2019. "The dilemma of NGOs and participatory conservation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Vine Mutyasira & Dana Hoag & Dustin L. Pendell & Dale T. Manning, 2018. "Is Sustainable Intensification Possible? Evidence from Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Sokka, Laura & Antikainen, Riina & Kauppi, Pekka E., 2007. "Municipal solid waste production and composition in Finland—Changes in the period 1960–2002 and prospects until 2020," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 475-488.
    6. Geoffrey McNicoll, 2014. "Population and sustainability," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 19, pages 291-303, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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