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Labor Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries, 2000–2050

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  • Peter McDonald
  • Rebecca Kippen

Abstract

Over the past 20 years, policy attention has been focused upon the implications of below‐replacement fertility for the aging of populations. This article argues that another potential consequence, a decline in the absolute size of the labor force, may prove to be an equally compelling issue because of its impact on rates of economic growth. Because the United States will experience both increasing labor productivity and an increase in its labor supply, the growth orientation of the global economy is likely to persist. In this circumstance, given relatively comparable changes in the productivity of labor across countries, countries that face major declines in their labor supply will fare less well than countries that are able to maintain their labor supply at least constant. The article examines the labor supply prospects of 16 developed countries for the period 2000–2050, drawing attention to the ways in which countries may be able to influence the future levels of their labor supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter McDonald & Rebecca Kippen, 2001. "Labor Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries, 2000–2050," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:1:p:1-32
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00001.x
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    1. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 1997. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Introduction and Summary of Papers by..," NBER Working Papers 6134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Britta Hoem, 2000. "Entry into motherhood in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(4).
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    2. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    3. Thomas Schindlmayr, 2002. "Future Personnel: Where Will They Come From?," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 85-88, March.
    4. Chan, Ming Ming & Shi, Qun & Tyers, Rodney, 2005. "Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance: Implications for Agricultural Markets," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137808, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Elke Loichinger, 2015. "Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(15), pages 443-486.

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