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How Voters Evaluate Economic Competence: A Comparison between Parties In and Out of Power

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  • Sarah Butt

Abstract

Accounts of general election outcomes increasingly talk about voters comparing parties in terms of their perceived competence to manage the economy and public services. This raises the question of how voters form evaluations of party competence. While it is assumed that voters form evaluations of the incumbent based on the signals provided by its current performance in office it is less clear how, in the absence of such a performance record, voters might evaluate the potential competence of the opposition. Using data from the British Election Panel Studies this article models the process by which voters form evaluations of parties' competence to manage the economy and compares results across incumbent and opposition parties. On the basis of evidence from general elections of 1992–2001 the article demonstrates that the process of evaluation formation does differ between parties in and out of power with retrospective evaluations of recent economic performance influencing evaluations of the former but not the latter. Nevertheless, the article also demonstrates that voters are capable of forming evaluations of the opposition which are more than a simple mirror image of their evaluations of the incumbent. In the absence of an up‐to‐date performance record these evaluations are based on long‐term partisan and ideological predispositions and the cues provided by party leaders.

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  • Sarah Butt, 2006. "How Voters Evaluate Economic Competence: A Comparison between Parties In and Out of Power," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 54(4), pages 743-766, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:polstu:v:54:y:2006:i:4:p:743-766
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9248.2006.00631.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Bartle, 2005. "Homogeneous Models and Heterogeneous Voters," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 53, pages 653-675, December.
    2. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    3. John Bartle, 2005. "Homogeneous Models and Heterogeneous Voters," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 53(4), pages 653-675, December.
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    8. Nadeau, Richard & Niemi, Richard G. & Amato, Timothy, 1996. "Prospective and Comparative or Retrospective and Individual? Party Leaders and Party Support in Great Britain," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 245-258, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eguia, Jon X. & Giovannoni, Francesco, 2019. "Tactical Extremism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 282-286, February.
    2. Robert Johns & Ann‐Kristin Kölln, 2020. "Moderation and Competence: How a Party's Ideological Position Shapes Its Valence Reputation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 649-663, July.

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