IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/perwir/v8y2007i4p293-308.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Die makroökonomischen Wirkungen diskretionärer Fiskalpolitik in Deutschland – Was wissen wir empirisch?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael W.M. Roos

Abstract

This article surveys the empirical literature on the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on the German macroeconomy. Although the qualitative and quantitative effects of fiscal policy are often discussed among politicians and in the public, economists only recently renewed their interest in this topic and have produced only few empirical studies for Germany so far. While older macroeconometric models generally predict positive effects of expansionary policies on output in the short run, newer SVAR studies disagree on the direction of the expected effects. There is, however, some agreement that the effects are likely to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael W.M. Roos, 2007. "Die makroökonomischen Wirkungen diskretionärer Fiskalpolitik in Deutschland – Was wissen wir empirisch?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(4), pages 293-308, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:8:y:2007:i:4:p:293-308
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2516.2007.00253.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2516.2007.00253.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-2516.2007.00253.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
    2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    3. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1999. "Assessing the effects of fiscal shocks," Working Paper Series WP-99-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Ludvigson, Sydney, 1996. "The macroeconomic effects of government debt in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 25-45, August.
    5. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    9. Bruno S. Frey & Silke Humbert & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "Was denken deutsche Ökonomen? Eine empirische Auswertung einer Internetbefragung unter den Mitgliedern des Vereins für Socialpolitik im Sommer 2006," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(4), pages 359-377, November.
    10. Devereux, Michael B & Head, Allen C & Lapham, Beverly J, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 233-254, May.
    11. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
    12. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    13. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 911-929, December.
    14. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December.
    15. Dan Fuller & Doris Geide-stevenson, 2003. "Consensus Among Economists: Revisited," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 369-387, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Rettet Frankfurt, aber vergesst nicht Neukölln!
      by Fabian Lindner in Herdentrieb on 2008-10-14 18:18:41

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anke Mönnig, 2011. "Product Tax Modelling - using the dynamic interindustry model INFORGE," EcoMod2011 2912, EcoMod.
    2. Ulrich Klüh & Wolfgang Wiegard & Karl-Hans Hartwig & Thomas Bauer & Busso Grabow, 2009. "Konjunkturpaket II: Was bringen Investitionen in Infrastruktur?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(02), pages 03-15, January.
    3. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2013. "Fiscal Institutions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 249-290, June.
    5. Michael W. M. Roos, 2009. "Die deutsche Fiskalpolitik während der Wirtschaftskrise 2008/2009," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(4), pages 389-412, November.
    6. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
    7. Walther Otremba & Jürgen Rüttgers & Michael Hüther & Otto Kentzler & Volker Treier & Kurt J. Lauk, 2008. "Wie nötig ist ein »Anti-Rezessionsprogramm«?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(18), pages 03-24, September.
    8. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Roos Michael W. M., 2015. "Die Komplexitätsökonomik und ihre Implikationen für die Wirtschaftspolitik," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 379-392, December.
    10. Ansgar Belke, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus Packages and Uncertainty in Times of Crisis. Economic Policy for Open Economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 25-46, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. K. Peren Arin & Peter H. Helles & Murat Koyuncu & Otto F. M. Reich, 2016. "Should We Care About The Composition Of Tax-Based Stimulus Packages?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 430-445, July.
    2. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
    3. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    4. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    5. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Swati Yadav & V. Upadhyay & Seema Sharma, 2012. "Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks on the Indian Economy," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(4), pages 415-444, November.
    7. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-)defense spending," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 12/2010, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    9. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, 2012. "Changing patterns of fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 845-873.
    10. Ana Mitreska & Sultanija Bojcheva – Terzijan, 2017. "Panel Estimation of the Impact of Foreign Banks Presence on Selected Banking Indicators in Macedonia," Working Papers 2017-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    11. Rilind Kabashi, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 39-69.
    12. Camyar, Isa & Ulupinar, Bahar, 2013. "The partisan policy cycle and firm valuation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 92-111.
    13. Hollmayr, Josef & Kuckuck, Jan, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers of central, state and local government and of the social security funds in Germany: Evidence of a SVAR," Discussion Papers 28/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Shuwei, 2018. "Understanding Why Fiscal Stimulus Can Fail through the Lens of the Survey of Professional Forecasters," MPRA Paper 89326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    17. Vitor Carvalho & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2011. "Investment and output effects of fiscal consolidations in a new-Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro Area: composition matters?," EcoMod2011 3246, EcoMod.
    18. Jooste, Charl & Liu, Guangling (Dave) & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2013. "Analysing the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 215-224.
    19. Jia, Bijie & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2015. "Government Spending Shocks and Private Activity: The Role of Sentiments," MPRA Paper 66263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:8:y:2007:i:4:p:293-308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.