IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/pacecr/v27y2022i4p380-399.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market‐wide shocks and the predictive power for the real economy in the Korean stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Jinyong Kim
  • Yongsik Kim

Abstract

We examine the predictive power of the stock market return for real economic growth corresponding to market‐wide shocks in Korea. The periods of large market‐wide shocks, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic, are characterized by the stock return synchronicity and volatility that can measure price informativeness. We find that the predictive power of the stock market return disappears when stock returns show high synchronicity and volatility, and the deteriorated predictive power is associated with an increase in individual investors' net buying shares. Our finding suggests that, even if the stock market shows outstanding performance following market‐wide shocks, this signal should be interpreted with caution because the stock market return may become less informative about fundamentals and lose the predictive power for the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinyong Kim & Yongsik Kim, 2022. "Market‐wide shocks and the predictive power for the real economy in the Korean stock market," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 380-399, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:380-399
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0106.12405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12405
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1468-0106.12405?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    2. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2020. "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash," Papers 2004.01831, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    3. Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2000. "Financial markets and the allocation of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 187-214.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    5. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    7. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
    9. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-108, January.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    11. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    12. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2007. "Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 619-650.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    14. Lee, Dong Wook & Liu, Mark H., 2011. "Does more information in stock price lead to greater or smaller idiosyncratic return volatility?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1563-1580, June.
    15. Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2052-2077.
    16. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    17. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 933-971, June.
    18. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1990. "The Stock Market Investments: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Scholarly Articles 30747157, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    19. Chan, Kalok & Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2014. "Price informativeness and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from the pricing of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 36-53.
    20. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    21. Dasgupta, Sudipto & Gan, Jie & Gao, Ning, 2010. "Transparency, Price Informativeness, and Stock Return Synchronicity: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1189-1220, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Cesari, Amedeo & Huang-Meier, Winifred, 2015. "Dividend changes and stock price informativeness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Thanh Huong Nguyen, 2019. "Information and Noise in Stock Markets: Evidence on the Determinants and Effects Using New Empirical Measures," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 7-2019, January-A.
    3. Pereira da Silva, Paulo, 2021. "Do managers pay attention to the market? A review of the relationship between stock price informativeness and investment," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Anita Todea, 2018. "Culture And Stock Price Reaction To Private Information," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 21, pages 117-130, June.
    5. Gao, Yihong & Gao, Jiayan & Li, Haili, 2024. "Green credit regulation and market efficiency: A perspective of irrational trading," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 199-219.
    6. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2013. "Real effects of stock underpricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 392-408.
    7. Todea, Alexandru & Petrescu, Daiana Florina, 2021. "Is stock price informativeness shaped by our genes?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Cook, Douglas O. & Luo, Shikong (Scott), 2023. "Fund flow-induced volatility and the cost of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. JULES H. van BINSBERGEN & CHRISTIAN C. OPP, 2019. "Real Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1659-1706, August.
    10. Lee, Eugenia Y. & Ha, Wonsuk & Park, Sunyoung, 2023. "Auditor specialization in R&D and clients’ R&D investment-q sensitivity," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2).
    11. Patrick J. Kelly, 2014. "Information Efficiency and Firm-Specific Return Variation," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-44.
    12. Fujun Lai & Qian Wang & Qingxiang Feng, 2019. "Does Chinese Financial Market Information Promote Listed Manufacturing Firms’ Productivity?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, January.
    13. Cheung, William Ming Yan & Im, Hyun Joong & Selvam, Srinivasan, 2023. "Stock liquidity and investment efficiency: Evidence from the split-share structure reform in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
    15. Bennett, Benjamin & Stulz, René & Wang, Zexi, 2020. "Does the stock market make firms more productive?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 281-306.
    16. Li, Jun & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2021. "Aggregate expected investment growth and stock market returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 618-638.
    17. Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
    18. Quynh Trang Phan & Poomthan Rangkakulnuwat, 2022. "How price informativeness affects the sensitivity of investment-to-stock price in Vietnamese listed firms," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 28-61.
    19. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Predicting GDP growth with stock and bond markets: Do they contain different information?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3651-3675, July.
    20. Yunsen Chen & Jianqiao Huang & Xiao Li & Qingbo Yuan, 2022. "Does stock market liberalization improve stock price efficiency? Evidence from China," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(7-8), pages 1175-1210, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:380-399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1361-374X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.