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Demographic Shift, Population Ageing And Economic Growth In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Xiujian Peng

Abstract

. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a given ageing profile of the population to forecast the growth path of China's economy during the twenty‐first century, this study finds that: population ageing leads to declining economic growth as labour supply shrinks and the rate of physical capital formation declines; households’ material living standards improve, albeit at a declining rate; falling domestic investment partially offsets declining national savings; and the resulting saving‐investment surplus generates a current account surplus and capital outflows. Finally, the main force that can sustain China's economic growth against the backdrop of population ageing is productivity improvement.

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  • Xiujian Peng, 2008. "Demographic Shift, Population Ageing And Economic Growth In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 680-697, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:13:y:2008:i:5:p:680-697
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00428.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
    2. Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0248, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(6), pages 29-54, November.
    2. Wenqun Gao & Yang Chen & Shaorui Xu & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Role of Population Aging in High-Quality Economic Development: Mediating Role of Technological Innovation," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, October.
    3. Guonan Ma & Haiwen Zhou, 2009. "China's Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(5), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Zheng Guo & Linchen Liu & Xuan Liu, 2016. "Population Aging, Marginal Propensity to Consume, and Economic Growth," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(9), pages 534-546, September.
    5. Marianne A. Ferber & Patricia Simpson, 2009. "Whither Systemic Reform? A Critical Review of the Literature on the Distributional and Income Adequacy Effects of Systemic Pension Reforms," management revue - Socio-Economic Studies, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 20(3), pages 254-276.
    6. K.B. Oh & Xuebin Chen & Jianmei Wang & Geoffrey R. Durden & Nicole El-Haber, 2011. "China’s Changing Demographics and their Influence on Financial Markets," Chapters, in: Lilai Xu (ed.), China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Taoyuan Wei & Qin Zhu & Solveig Glomsrød, 2018. "Ageing Impact on the Economy and Emissions in China: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    8. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Pohnpattanapaisankul, Kumpon, 2019. "The Impact of Demographics on Inflation in Thailand," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(2), December.
    10. Jiang, Min & Kim, Euijune, 2024. "Measuring the impacts of the two-child policy on industrial structure and economic growth in china using a CGE model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Yinyin Cai & Yew-Kwang Ng, 2014. "Part-Peasants: Incomplete Rural–Urban Labour Migration in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 401-422, October.

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