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Nexus Between Housing And The Macro Economy: The Hong Kong Case

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  • LOK SANG HO
  • GARY WONG

Abstract

This paper shows that, consistent with the ‘economic base’ theory, exports drive domestic consumption and domestic investment, but housing appears to serve as an important link between exports and domestic expenditures. Focusing on the Hong Kong economy, which is a small open economy with a big population, we found that exports and interest rates drive housing prices over a long period, while housing prices in turn drive domestic expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Lok Sang Ho & Gary Wong, 2008. "Nexus Between Housing And The Macro Economy: The Hong Kong Case," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 223-239, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:13:y:2008:i:2:p:223-239
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00398.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
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    4. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Lok Sang Ho & Gary Wai‐Chung Wong, 2006. "Privatization Of Public Housing: Did It Cause The 1998 Recession In Hong Kong?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 262-273, April.
    6. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    9. repec:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:2:p:217-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Karl E. Case, 2000. "Real Estate and Macroeconomy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 119-162.
    11. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Deflation, Credit and Asset Prices," Working Papers 132003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. J. Phillips & E. Goodstein, 2000. "Growth management and housing prices: the case of Portland, Oregon," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 334-344, July.
    13. Edelstein, Robert H. & Lum, Sau Kim, 2004. "House prices, wealth effects, and the Singapore macroeconomy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 342-367, December.
    14. Boswijk, H Peter, 1996. "Testing Identifiability of Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 153-160, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Tse, Chin-Bun & Rodgers, Timothy & Niklewski, Jacek, 2014. "The 2007 financial crisis and the UK residential housing market: Did the relationship between interest rates and house prices change?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 518-530.
    5. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    8. Ho, Lok Sang & Wong, Gary Wai-chung, 2009. "The first step on the housing ladder: A natural experiment in Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 59-67, March.
    9. Yuan Cheng & John K. Dagsvik & Xuehui Han, 2014. "Real Estate Market Policy and Household Demand for Housing," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 237-253, May.
    10. Mohammad Monjurul Hoque & Zulkornain Yusop, 2012. "Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Export Performance in Bangladesh: An Empirical Investigation," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(2), pages 207-239, September.
    11. Lok Sang Ho & Mengna Hu & Xiangdong Wei & Gary Wai Chung Wong, 2023. "The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 142-164, February.
    12. Gary Wai Chung Wong & Lok Sang Ho, 2017. "Policy-Driven Housing Cycle: The Hong Kong Case of Supply Intervention," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 375-396.
    13. Nan-Kuang Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2013. "Credit Constraint and the Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effect on House Prices," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 431-455, October.

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