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Nexus Between Housing And The Macro Economy: The Hong Kong Case

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  • LOK SANG HO
  • GARY WONG

Abstract

This paper shows that, consistent with the ‘economic base’ theory, exports drive domestic consumption and domestic investment, but housing appears to serve as an important link between exports and domestic expenditures. Focusing on the Hong Kong economy, which is a small open economy with a big population, we found that exports and interest rates drive housing prices over a long period, while housing prices in turn drive domestic expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Lok Sang Ho & Gary Wong, 2008. "Nexus Between Housing And The Macro Economy: The Hong Kong Case," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 223-239, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:13:y:2008:i:2:p:223-239
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00398.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
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    8. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Lok Sang Ho & Gary Wai‐Chung Wong, 2006. "Privatization Of Public Housing: Did It Cause The 1998 Recession In Hong Kong?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 262-273, April.
    10. Phang, Sock-Yong, 2004. "House prices and aggregate consumption: do they move together? Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 101-119, June.
    11. Kim, Kyung-Hwan, 2004. "Housing and the Korean economy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 321-341, December.
    12. repec:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:2:p:217-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Edelstein, Robert H. & Lum, Sau Kim, 2004. "House prices, wealth effects, and the Singapore macroeconomy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 342-367, December.
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    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong housing market unaffordable? Some stylized facts and estimations," ISER Discussion Paper 1081, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 236, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    5. Yuan Cheng & John K. Dagsvik & Xuehui Han, 2014. "Real Estate Market Policy and Household Demand for Housing," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 237-253, May.
    6. Ho, Lok Sang & Wong, Gary Wai-chung, 2009. "The first step on the housing ladder: A natural experiment in Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 59-67, March.
    7. Lok Sang Ho & Mengna Hu & Xiangdong Wei & Gary Wai Chung Wong, 2023. "The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 142-164, February.
    8. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    9. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    10. Nan-Kuang Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2013. "Credit Constraint and the Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effect on House Prices," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 431-455, October.
    11. Tse, Chin-Bun & Rodgers, Timothy & Niklewski, Jacek, 2014. "The 2007 financial crisis and the UK residential housing market: Did the relationship between interest rates and house prices change?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 518-530.
    12. Mohammad Monjurul Hoque & Zulkornain Yusop, 2012. "Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Export Performance in Bangladesh: An Empirical Investigation," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(2), pages 207-239, September.
    13. Gary Wai Chung Wong & Lok Sang Ho, 2017. "Policy-Driven Housing Cycle: The Hong Kong Case of Supply Intervention," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 375-396.

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