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Uncovering Unobserved Economy: A General Equilibrium Characterization

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  • Amedeo Argentiero
  • Carlo Andrea Bollino

Abstract

This paper builds a three-sector DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model, considering explicitly the interactions among regular, underground and criminal sectors. We generated quarterly data for unobserved variables for Italian economy over the sample 1974:01–2011:02, through Monte Carlo simulations, and we found that underground economy is about 20 per cent of GDP, whereas criminal economy is 11 per cent. The dynamic behavior of the model shows that (1) regular production has a greater relative volatility with respect to unobserved production, (2) an efficient law enforcement activity is able to weaken unobserved activities and (3) unobserved sectors' variables exhibit a negative correlation with the corresponding ones of regular economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Amedeo Argentiero & Carlo Andrea Bollino, 2015. "Uncovering Unobserved Economy: A General Equilibrium Characterization," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 306-338, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:66:y:2015:i:2:p:306-338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Friedrich Schneider & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "Money Laundering as a Financial Sector Crime - A New Approach to Measurement, with an Application to Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4127, CESifo.
    3. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    5. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "L’economia non osservata fra evasione e crimine: una rivisitazione del Currency Demand Approach con una applicazione al contesto italiano," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 229-269, January-M.
    6. Alfred Franz, 1985. "Estimates Of The Hidden Economy In Austria On The Basis Of Official Statistics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 31(4), pages 325-336, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buček Jakub, 2017. "Determinants of the Shadow Economy in the Czech Regions: A Region-Level Study," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(3), pages 315-329, September.
    2. Argentiero, Amedeo & Cerqueti, Roy & Sabatini, Fabio, 2021. "Does social capital explain the Solow residual? A DSGE approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 35-53.
    3. Junior, Celso J. Costa & Garcia-Cintado, Alejandro C., 2024. "Adding an informal sector to the IS-LM framework: A graphical exposition of the IS-LM-PC-SE model for the classroom and policymaker," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    4. Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano & Monica Varlese, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation Plans with Underground Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9622, CESifo.

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