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What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications

Author

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  • Ahmed Gulzar

    (National Transport Research Centre (NTRC), Ministry of Communications, Islamabad
    Department of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Novaira Junaid

    (Beaconhouse National University (BNU), Lahore)

  • Adnan Haider

    (Research Department, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi
    Department of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

There is a worldwide contemporary debate about the role of the hidden economy in achieving the goal of sustained and inclusive economic growth and development, especially in the context of its spillover effects on the formal economy. For this purpose, policy-makers and academicians have made concerted efforts to estimate the size of the hidden economy and to analyse its causes, issues, and implications for key macroeconomic variables. However, there is a consensus among the policy-makers that a better macroeconomic policy formulation and its true implementation are subject to proper management of the associated issues of the hidden economy with suitable policy measures. In Pakistan, it is generally assumed that the hidden economy contributes about 30 percent to 50 percent to the overall GDP. The study investigates the potential determinants of the hidden economy and various interrelated socio-economic issues in the perspective of achieving the national goal of inclusive growth and development. Five statistical and structural modelling approaches are used to estimate the size of the hidden economy and to analyse the characteristic nature of its growth over time: the simple monetary approach, the modified monetary approach using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the multiple-indicators multiple-causes (MIMIC) approach, the electricity consumption approach, and the labour market survey approach. Policy implications are viewed in the context of the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665-704.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:665-704
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    Cited by:

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    3. Andrew Feltenstein & Biplab DattaAuthor-Email: bdatta2@student.gsu.edu, 2018. "Broad Based Subsidies or Targeted Transfers? An Analysis of the Electricity Subsidy in Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1801, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    4. Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed & Rambeli, Norimah & Abdul Jalil, Norasibah & Kuperan Viswanathan, K., 2019. "A modified Currency Demand Function and the Malaysian shadow economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 266-281.
    5. Ahmad; K.; Chaudhary; A. R, 2016. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Tax Structure of Pakistan," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 10(2), pages 39-55, Fall.
    6. Shahryar Bahawal, 2021. "Tax Amnesties in Tax Reform Policy: A Case Study from Pakistan and Lessons for Developing Economies," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 37-71, April.
    7. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    8. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2018. "Corruption and Entrepreneurship: Cross‐Country Evidence from Formal and Informal Sectors," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 831-848, January.
    9. Khalil Ahmad & Amjad Ali & Michael Yang, 2022. "The Effect Of Trade Liberalization On Expenditure Structure Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 73-84, March.
    10. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Mohsin Ali & Faheem Ur Rehman & Wadi B. Alonazi & Mohammed Aljuaid, 2022. "Advance Dynamic Panel Second-Generation Two-Step System Generalized Method of Movement Modeling: Applications in Economic Stability-Shadow Economy Nexus with a Special Case of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2020. "Cross‐Country Evidence Of Corruption Spillovers To Formal And Informal Entrepreneurship," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 48-66, January.
    12. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2020. "How Informal Sector Affects the Formal Economy in Pakistan? A Lesson for Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 7-21, June.
    13. Omar Ashraf & M. Ali Kemal, 2019. "Exploring the Determinants of Underground Economy of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2019:163, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    14. Aristophane Djeufack Dongmo & Paloma Mbengono Coralie & Manuela Chetue Komguep & Ulrich Kembeng Tchinda, 2023. "Urbanization, informal economy, economic growth and CO2 emissions in African countries: a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model approach," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 35-63, April.
    15. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider & Zafar Hayat, 2020. "Intensity of Regulations as a Cause of the Informal Sector," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 15(2), pages 135-154, August.
    17. Misbah Kiani & Adeel Ahmed & Khalid Zaman, 2015. "Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches for measuring underground economy of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 295-317, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hidden Economy; Size; Causes; Socio-economic Implications; Inclusive Growth and Development; 18th Amendment and 7th NFC Award; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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