IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/metroe/v59y2008i4p574-593.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

As‐Ad Revisited: Overshooting Adjustment Dynamics Under Naïve Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Badinger
  • Ingrid Kubin

Abstract

We analyse the adjustment dynamics from a short‐term to a medium‐term equilibrium in a standard AS‐AD model à la Blanchard (2006, Macroeconomics, 4th edn, Prentice‐Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ) for an open economy with fixed and flexible exchange rates. An explicit analysis suggests the local stability of the medium‐term equilibrium. However, an overshooting adjustment dynamics is possible for the exchange rate, a result that directly relates to the famous Dornbusch (1976, Journal of Political Economy, 84, pp. 1161–1176) analysis. In contrast to the latter, in the Blanchard framework it is obtained without assuming rational expectations and without relying upon saddle‐path stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Badinger & Ingrid Kubin, 2008. "As‐Ad Revisited: Overshooting Adjustment Dynamics Under Naïve Expectations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 574-593, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:59:y:2008:i:4:p:574-593
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2008.00319.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2008.00319.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2008.00319.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fuente,Angel de la, 2000. "Mathematical Methods and Models for Economists," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521585293, January.
    2. Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Christian Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2008. "Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, number 978-3-540-72542-8, June.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    4. Thomas I. Palley, 1997. "Keynesian Theory and AS/AD Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 459-468, Fall.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Droste, Edward & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan, 2002. "Endogenous fluctuations under evolutionary pressure in Cournot competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-269, August.
    7. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 1997. "On an Alleged Inconsistency in Aggregate-Supply/Aggregate-Demand Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 469-476, Fall.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 287-321, September.
    9. A. Bhaduri & K. Laski & M. Riese, 1999. "Effective demand versus profit maximization in aggregate demand/supply analysis: a dynamic perspective," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(210), pages 281-293.
    10. David Colander, 1995. "The Stories We Tell: A Reconsideration of AS/AD Analysis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 169-188, Summer.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 2014. "Chaos in the Dornbusch Model of the Exchange Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    13. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), 2004. "Complexity in Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 2709.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "International Finance, Levy Distributions, and the Econophysics of Exchange Rates," International Finance 0405018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    3. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    4. Miller, M. & Weller, P., 1988. "Solving Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems: A Qualitative Treatment With Economic Applications," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 309, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
    6. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    7. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber, 2020. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 168-186, March.
    8. Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Kartono, Agus & Solekha, Siti & Sumaryada, Tony & Irmansyah,, 2021. "Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    12. repec:wvu:wpaper:09-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1194, CESifo.
    14. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
    16. Vygodina, Anna V. & Zorn, Thomas S. & DeFusco, Richard, 2008. "Asymmetry in the effects of economic fundamentals on rising and falling exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 728-746, September.
    17. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    18. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
    19. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
    20. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    21. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:59:y:2008:i:4:p:574-593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.