IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/metroe/v58y2007i1p127-154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CAN THE POOR COUNTRIES CATCH UP? MIXED RESULTS FROM EXTENDED SOURCES OF GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE EARLY 21st CENTURY

Author

Listed:
  • Lance Taylor
  • Codrina Rada

Abstract

Illustrative projections of per capita income gaps between two groups of developing economies and the rich economies for the period 1998–2030 are made on the basis of an extended sources of growth equation which accounts for interactions between trends in capital and labor productivity. The equation takes into consideration Kaldor–Verdoorn effects, possible impacts on labor productivity of trade liberalization and/or astute industrial policy, human and physical capital accumulation, employment and population growth, shifting shares of labor in income and traded goods in output, shifts in capital productivity, productivity growth retardation due to convergence and specific regional effects. Under optimistic assumptions about all these factors and in the historically unprecedented absence of adverse macroeconomic shocks over three decades, relative and absolute convergence of both regions to the rich countries may be possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance Taylor & Codrina Rada, 2007. "CAN THE POOR COUNTRIES CATCH UP? MIXED RESULTS FROM EXTENDED SOURCES OF GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE EARLY 21st CENTURY," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 127-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:58:y:2007:i:1:p:127-154
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2007.00263.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2007.00263.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2007.00263.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Developing and Transition Economies in the Late 20th Century: Diverging Growth Rates, Economic Structures, and Sources of Demand," Working Papers 34, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ines Lindner & Holger Strulik, 2020. "Innovation And Inequality In A Small World," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 683-719, May.
    2. Czeglédi, Pál, 2009. "A tulajdonjogi biztonság szerepe a technológia elterjedésében [The role of property-law security in the spread of technology]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 790-813.
    3. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andres Tamayo, 2008. "La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas," Borradores de Economia 534, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Xu, Kun & Guan, Zhihua & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "省级财政支出效率空间溢出效应研究：基于超效率dea和gsm模型 [Study on Spatial Spillover Effect of Provincial Fiscal Efficiency: Based on Super-Efficient DEA and GSM Model]," MPRA Paper 71132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tasso Adamopoulos, 2011. "Transportation Costs, Agricultural Productivity, And Cross‐Country Income Differences," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 489-521, May.
    6. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(01), pages 65-104, March.
    7. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2020. "Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 677-710, September.
    8. Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Developing and Transition Economies in the Late 20th Century: Diverging Growth Rates, Economic Structures, and Sources of Demand," Working Papers 34, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    9. Strulik, Holger & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2010. "The Fertility Transition Around the World - 1950-2005," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-443, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Fiaschi, Davide & Lavezzi, Andrea Mario, 2007. "Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 271-290, September.
    11. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    12. M. Aglietta & J. Chateau & J. Fayolle & M. Juillard & J. Le Cacheux & G. Legarrec & V. Touzé, 2002. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe:," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 216, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    14. Crafts, Nicholas & Toniolo, Gianni, 2008. "European Economic Growth, 1950-2005: An Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 6863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Marjan Senjur, 2012. "A competitive growth of a small midle-income country in the eurozone is far to be assured," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 213-233, September.
    16. Antonio Saravia & Carlos Gustavo Machicado & Felix Rioja, 2014. "Productivity, Structural Change and Latin American Development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 610-624, August.
    17. V. V. Chari & Christopher Phelan, 2015. "On the Ethics of Redistribution," Economic Policy Paper 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-177, February.
    19. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173.
    20. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:58:y:2007:i:1:p:127-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.