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Mean‐field games with differing beliefs for algorithmic trading

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  • Philippe Casgrain
  • Sebastian Jaimungal

Abstract

Even when confronted with the same data, agents often disagree on a model of the real world. Here, we address the question of how interacting heterogeneous agents, who disagree on what model the real world follows, optimize their trading actions. The market has latent factors that drive prices, and agents account for the permanent impact they have on prices. This leads to a large stochastic game, where each agents performance criteria are computed under a different probability measure. We analyze the mean‐field game (MFG) limit of the stochastic game and show that the Nash equilibrium is given by the solution to a nonstandard vector‐valued forward–backward stochastic differential equation. Under some mild assumptions, we construct the solution in terms of expectations of the filtered states. Furthermore, we prove that the MFG strategy forms an ε‐Nash equilibrium for the finite player game. Finally, we present a least square Monte Carlo based algorithm for computing the equilibria and show through simulations that increasing disagreement may increase price volatility and trading activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Casgrain & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2020. "Mean‐field games with differing beliefs for algorithmic trading," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 995-1034, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:mathfi:v:30:y:2020:i:3:p:995-1034
    DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12237
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Bouchard & Masaaki Fukasawa & Martin Herdegen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2018. "Equilibrium returns with transaction costs," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 569-601, July.
    2. Olivier Guéant & Pierre Louis Lions & Jean-Michel Lasry, 2011. "Mean Field Games and Applications," Post-Print hal-01393103, HAL.
    3. Bruno Bouchard & Masaaki Fukasawa & Martin Herdegen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Equilibrium Returns with Transaction Costs," Papers 1707.08464, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    4. Bruno Bouchard & Masaaki Fukasawa & Martin Herdegen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2018. "Equilibrium Returns with Transaction Costs," Post-Print hal-01569408, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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