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Jumps into Democracy: Integrating the Short and Long Run in the Democratic Transition

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  • Martin Paldam
  • Erich Gundlach

Abstract

When countries become wealthy, they become democracies. Using kernel regressions, we show that the long‐run path in the Polity index looks exactly like a transition curve. However, the literature lacks a short‐run model that can generate this path. We note that the main political regime index is constant for most years. However, the stability is interrupted by infrequent jumps that are often quite large. We argue that periods of constancy represent political status quo equilibria that need to be broken by a triggering event. We find that such events occur randomly; they cannot be explained by economic variables. But if an event causes a change in the regime, the jump is normally in the direction of the transition curve. Hence, the curve acts as an attractor for the jumps. This is a new finding that integrates the short and the long run of the Democratic Transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Paldam & Erich Gundlach, 2018. "Jumps into Democracy: Integrating the Short and Long Run in the Democratic Transition," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 456-481, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:71:y:2018:i:3:p:456-481
    DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12177
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Paldam, 2019. "The Transition of Corruption - Institutions and dynamics," Economics Working Papers 2019-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. J. Brandon Bolen & Claudia R. Williamson, 2019. "The Path of Reform: The Consequences of Institutional Volatility," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 400-425, August.
    3. Niclas Berggren & Christian Bjørnskov, 2022. "Political institutions and academic freedom: evidence from across the world," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 205-228, January.
    4. Paldam, Martin, 2021. "The transition of corruption institutions and dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Martin Paldam, 2019. "Does system instability harm development? A comparative empirical study of the long run," Economics Working Papers 2019-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Martin Paldam, 2020. "A study of triggering events: When do political regimes change?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 181-199, January.
    7. Pittaluga, Giovanni B. & Reghezza, Alessio & Seghezza, Elena, 2020. "Reconsidering the modernization hypothesis: The role of diversified production and interest‐group competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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