IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/kyklos/v58y2005i4p611-634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta‐Regression Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • T. D. Stanley

Abstract

A meta‐analysis of thirty‐four restriction tests from nine studies of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU) finds the statistical trace of a false empirical hypothesis. A theme of bias and misspecification among those studies that tend to be more supportive of NRU emerges. When combined with a separate meta‐analysis of NRU's falsifying hypothesis, unemployment ‘hysteresis’ (Stanley 2004a), the natural rate hypothesis may be regarded as empirically ‘falsified’ (Popper 1959). Monte Carlo simulations validate the meta‐regression methods used here to integrate different restriction tests and to identify their limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 611-634, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:4:p:611-634
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00305.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00305.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2005.00305.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
    2. Peter Kriesler & J W Nevile & G C Harcourt, 2013. "Exchange rates and the macroeconomy in an era of global financial crises, with special reference to Australia," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 24(1), pages 51-63, March.
    3. Germà Bel & Xavier Fageda, 2009. "Factors explaining local privatization: a meta-regression analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 105-119, April.
    4. Stephan B. Bruns, 2013. "Identifying Genuine Effects in Observational Research by Means of Meta-Regressions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2013-040, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Does economics add up? An introduction to meta-regression analysis," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 207-220.
    6. Doucouliagos, Hristos & Paldam, Martin & Stanley, T.D., 2018. "Skating on thin evidence: Implications for public policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 16-25.
    7. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    8. Stephan B. Bruns & Christian Gross & David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(4), pages 101-134, October.
    9. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    10. Marc Lavoie & Eckhard Hein, 2015. "Going from a low to a high employment equilibrium," IMK Working Paper 144-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    11. Zuzana Richterková & Petr Koráb, 2013. "Impact of insurance sector activity on economic growth - A meta-analysis," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2677-2683.
    12. Christophe Tavéra & Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Isabelle Cadoret & Arthur Charpentier, 2015. "The “mother of all puzzles” at thirty: A meta-analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 80-96.
    13. Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2012. "Faith-based Macroeconomics: A Critique of Recent Developments in NAIRU Estimation," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon & Domenica Tropeano (ed.), Employment, Growth and Development, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Jerrod M. Penn & Wuyang Hu, 2021. "The Extent of Hypothetical Bias in Willingness to Accept," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 126-141, January.
    15. Matias Mednik & Cesar M. Rodriguez & Inder J. Ruprah, 2012. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 448-466, May.
    16. Hristos Doucouliagos & Janto Haman & T.D. Stanley, 2012. "Pay for Performance and Corporate Governance Reform," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 670-703, July.
    17. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    18. Bui Dieu Thao Nguyen, 2023. "A meta-analysis of the multiplier effects of the money supply on prices," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 985-1024, November.
    19. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    20. Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 137-154, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    2. Portes, Richard & Santorum, Anita, 1987. "Money and the consumption goods market in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 354-371, September.
    3. Glaser, Markus, 2003. "Online Broker Investors: Demographic Information, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Positions, and Trading Activity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-18, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. David F. Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(46), October.
    5. Mur, Jesús & Angulo, Ana, 2009. "Model selection strategies in a spatial setting: Some additional results," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 200-213, March.
    6. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    7. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1996. "On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 151-175.
    8. Sadorsky, P. A., 1989. "Measuring Resource Scarcity in Non-renewable Resources with Inequality Constrained Estimation," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275216, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    9. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Testing nonlinear dynamics, long memory and chaotic behaviour with macroeconomic data," Research Discussion Papers 9/1995, Bank of Finland.
    10. Edoardo Lorenzetti, 2005. "Analysis of the resource concentration on size and research performance: The case of Italian National Research Council over the period 2000-2004," CERIS Working Paper 200502, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. McGuirk, Anya M. & Spanos, Aris, 2004. "Revisiting Error Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions And Granger Causality," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20176, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Aris Spanos & Niki Papadopoulou, 2013. "A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy," Working Papers 2013-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    14. Günther Rehme, 2011. "Endogenous Policy And Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 262-296, May.
    15. Adriana Cassoni, 1999. "Labour demand in Uruguay before and after re-unionisation," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0199, Department of Economics - dECON.
    16. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    17. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    18. Andreou, E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003. "A Simple Asymptotic Analysis of Residual-Based Statistics," Other publications TiSEM 9fe68e51-a026-4660-b6e7-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
    20. Malley, James R. & Bell, David & Foster, John, 1991. "The specification, estimation and simulation of a small global macroeconomic model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 546-559, October.
    21. Dan H. Andersen & Hans-Joachim Voth, 1997. "Neutrality and Mediterranean Shipping Under Danish Flag, 1750-1807," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _018, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:4:p:611-634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0023-5962 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.