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Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach

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  • Im, Eric Iksoon
  • Cauley, Jon
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

This paper uses spectral analysis to provide evidence that cycles have characterized the following time series: all ter rorist events, skyjackings, kidnappings, barricade and hostage taking and all events not involving hostages. The series for all events ha d a periodicity of 28 months, while skyjackings had two significant p eriodicities-4.1 months and 28 months. Only a single significant pero dicity was associated with barricade and hostage events and kidnappin gs-72 months and 48 months, respectively. Cross-spectral tests sugges t that terrorists substitute between related events (e.g., kidnapping s and skyjackings); but this substitution primarily showed up in the short run. Copyright 1987 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG

Suggested Citation

  • Im, Eric Iksoon & Cauley, Jon & Sandler, Todd, 1987. "Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 238-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:40:y:1987:i:2:p:238-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
    2. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    3. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    4. Andree Ehlert & Jan Seidel & Ursula Weisenfeld, 2020. "Trouble on my mind: the effect of catastrophic events on people’s worries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 951-975, August.
    5. Phillips Peter J, 2011. "Lone Wolf Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31, March.
    6. Peter Phillips, 2011. "The Life Cycle of Terrorist Organizations," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 369-385, November.
    7. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    8. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, 2005. "Measuring terrorism," Chapters, in: Alain Marciano & Jean-Michel Josselin (ed.), Law and the State, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Brandt, Patrick T. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 758-778, September.
    10. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers 136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Todd Sandler, 2003. "Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 779-802, June.
    12. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    13. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    14. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Montalvo, José G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2019. "Earthquakes and terrorism: The long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 541-561.
    16. Das, Satya P., 2008. "Some mechanisms of terror cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 644-656, September.
    17. Patrick J. Wilson & L.J. Perry, 2004. "Forecasting Australian Unemployment Rates using Spectral Analysis," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(4), pages 459-480, December.
    18. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    19. Muhammad Islam & Wassim Shahin, 2001. "Applying economic methodology to the war on terrorism," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 7-26, January.
    20. Sean P. O'brien, 1996. "Foreign Policy Crises and the Resort to Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 320-335, June.
    21. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:369-385 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ur Rehman Faiz, 2015. "The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 125-165, October.

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