IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jscmgt/v51y2015i4p73-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Future of Logistics in Emerging Markets—Fuzzy Clustering Scenarios Grounded in Institutional and Factor-Market Rivalry Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Micha Hirschinger
  • Alexander Spickermann
  • Evi Hartmann
  • Heiko Gracht
  • Inga-Lena Darkow

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="jscm12074-abs-0001"> Transportation and logistics are increasingly relevant to the rapid economic growth of emerging economies. Decision makers in the transportation and logistics industry require a comprehensive understanding of the institutional business environment and factor markets in emerging economy countries to formulate accurate supply chain strategies for the future. Although extensive studies on prospective scenarios in emerging economies are available, research has largely neglected the future evolution of transportation and logistics. This study addresses this gap by applying a multiple method research approach and relying on institutional theory and factor-market rivalry theory to create scenarios of the development of transportation and logistics in emerging economy countries by 2030. We do so by collecting qualitative and quantitative data through a Delphi survey and applying fuzzy clustering to group the results into meaningful and interpretable scenarios. Our results suggest that emerging economies will take advantage of free trade zones to consolidate their position in the international market and encourage investment. Consequently, logistics will experience rapid growth and value-added services will expand, propelling new players from developing economies onto the international stage. Our findings also suggest that the logistics service industry in emerging economy countries will undergo a significant consolidation process, leading to the possibility of factor-market rivalry among shippers. This suggests that shippers' social networks and personal contacts will increase in importance in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Micha Hirschinger & Alexander Spickermann & Evi Hartmann & Heiko Gracht & Inga-Lena Darkow, 2015. "The Future of Logistics in Emerging Markets—Fuzzy Clustering Scenarios Grounded in Institutional and Factor-Market Rivalry Theory," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 51(4), pages 73-93, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jscmgt:v:51:y:2015:i:4:p:73-93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jscm.2015.51.issue-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Meyer & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Evi Hartmann, 2022. "Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    2. Kopyto, Matthias & Lechler, Sabrina & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hartmann, Evi, 2020. "Potentials of blockchain technology in supply chain management: Long-term judgments of an international expert panel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. de Andrés Sánchez, Jorge & Belzunegui Eraso, Ángel Gabriel & Valls Fonayet, Francesc, 2020. "Evaluación de la eficiencia del gasto social en los países EU15 con análisis envolvente de datos y métodos cluster borrosos || Evaluation of the efficiency of social spending in EU15 countries with da," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 30(1), pages 97-116, December.
    4. Gebhardt, Maximilian & Spieske, Alexander & Kopyto, Matthias & Birkel, Hendrik, 2022. "Increasing global supply chains’ resilience after the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical results from a Delphi study," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 59-72.
    5. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    7. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    8. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Christopher Münch & Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2021. "A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    10. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jscmgt:v:51:y:2015:i:4:p:73-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1523-2409 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.