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Should we do more when we know less? The effect of technology risk on optimal effort

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  • Lu Li
  • Richard Peter

Abstract

Technology risk arises when the effectiveness of self‐insurance and self‐protection activities depends on exogenous factors or is only imperfectly known. It affects optimal behavior via a preference channel and a technology channel. In this paper, we identify conditions for unambiguous comparative statics with respect to the presence of, as well as various stochastic changes in technology risk. These conditions involve prudence, relative risk aversion, relative prudence, and several new measures of mitigation efficacy. We highlight cases where technology risk raises the optimal level of effort, consistent with the precautionary principle. We discuss several applications of our results.

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  • Lu Li & Richard Peter, 2021. "Should we do more when we know less? The effect of technology risk on optimal effort," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 695-725, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:88:y:2021:i:3:p:695-725
    DOI: 10.1111/jori.12339
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    4. Christoph Heinzel & Richard Peter, 2021. "Precautionary motives with multiple instruments [Motifs de précaution en cas de multiples instruments]," Working Papers hal-03484875, HAL.
    5. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Richard Peter & Marc A. Ragin, 2023. "Probability weighting and insurance demand in a unified framework," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(1), pages 63-109, March.
    6. Liudong Chen & Bolun Xu, 2024. "Prudent Price-Responsive Demands," Papers 2405.16356, arXiv.org.
    7. Anand, Vaibhav, 2001. "The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes," SocArXiv hdpga, Center for Open Science.
    8. Heinzel Christoph & Richard Peter, 2021. "Precautionary motives with multiple instruments," Working Papers SMART 21-09, INRAE UMR SMART.
    9. Richard Peter, 2024. "The economics of self-protection," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 49(1), pages 6-35, March.
    10. Sebastian Hinck & Petra Steinorth, 2023. "Insurance demand in the presence of loss‐dependent background risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    11. Heinzel, Christoph & Peter, Richard, 2021. "Precautionary motives with multiple instruments," Working Papers 316521, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    12. Simon Sølvsten & Brooks Kaiser, 2023. "Do insurers adjust prices for the adoption of loss prevention technologies? Evidence from Danish municipal contracts," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 57-82, March.
    13. Heinzel, Christoph & Peter, Richard, 2023. "Precaution with multiple instruments: The importance of substitution effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 392-412.
    14. Anand, Vaibhav, 2022. "The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes," MPRA Paper 114491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Claudio Bonilla & Marcos Vergara, 2022. "New results on precautionary saving and nonlinear risks," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 177-189, July.

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