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Accuracy of Premium Calculation Models for CAT Bonds—An Empirical Analysis

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  • Marcello Galeotti
  • Marc Gürtler
  • Christine Winkelvos

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  • Marcello Galeotti & Marc Gürtler & Christine Winkelvos, 2013. "Accuracy of Premium Calculation Models for CAT Bonds—An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 401-421, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:80:y:2013:i:2:p:401-421
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2012.01482.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Furman, Edward & Zitikis, Ricardas, 2008. "Weighted premium calculation principles," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 459-465, February.
    2. Wang, Shaun, 1996. "Premium Calculation by Transforming the Layer Premium Density," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 71-92, May.
    3. Lane, Morton N., 2000. "Pricing Risk Transfer Transactions1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 259-293, November.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    5. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2009. "Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk‐Transfer Solutions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 493-545, September.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    7. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 0. "Improving CAT bond pricing models via machine learning," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-19.
    2. David Blake & Marco Morales & Enrico Biffis & Yijia Lin & Andreas Milidonis, 2017. "Special Edition: Longevity 10 – The Tenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 515-532, April.
    3. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
    4. Makariou, Despoina & Barrieu, Pauline & Chen, Yining, 2021. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 140-162.
    5. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Hard markets, hard times: On the inefficiency of the CAT bond market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Li, Han & Liu, Haibo & Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2023. "Pricing extreme mortality risk in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 84-106.
    7. Chatoro, Marian & Mitra, Sovan & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Shao, Jia, 2023. "Catastrophe bond pricing in the primary market: The issuer effect and pricing factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Van Son Lai & Anne-Sophie Charest, 2017. "CAT Bond Spreads Via HARA Utility and Nonparametric Tests," Working Papers 2017-002, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "Measuring the liquidity impact on catastrophe bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 197-210.
    10. Braun, Alexander & Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2019. "Asset pricing and extreme event risk: Common factors in ILS fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 59-78.
    11. Ben Ammar, Semir & Braun, Alexander & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Alternative Risk Transfer and Insurance-Linked Securities: Trends, Challenges and New Market Opportunities," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 56, number 56.
    12. Morton Lane, 2024. "The ILS loss experience: natural catastrophe issues 2001–2020," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 97-137, January.
    13. Stupfler, Gilles & Yang, Fan, 2018. "Analyzing And Predicting Cat Bond Premiums: A Financial Loss Premium Principle And Extreme Value Modeling," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 375-411, January.
    14. Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 2020. "Improving CAT bond pricing models via machine learning," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(5), pages 428-446, September.
    15. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Van Son Lai, 2017. "Reinsurance or CAT Bond? How to Optimally Combine Both," Working Papers 2017-003, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    16. Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & Yining Chen, 2020. "A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond market," Papers 2001.10393, arXiv.org.
    17. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2023. "Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 283-328, June.
    18. Marc Gürtler & Martin Hibbeln & Christine Winkelvos, 2016. "The Impact of the Financial Crisis and Natural Catastrophes on CAT Bonds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(3), pages 579-612, September.
    19. Peter Carayannopoulos & Olga Kanj & M. Fabricio Perez, 2022. "Pricing dynamics in the market for catastrophe bonds," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(1), pages 172-202, January.
    20. Frédéric Godin & Van Son Lai & Denis-Alexandre Trottier, 2019. "A general class of distortion operators for pricing contingent claims with applications to CAT bonds," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2019(7), pages 558-584, August.
    21. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    22. Electra V. Petracou & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Decision Making Under Model Uncertainty: Fréchet–Wasserstein Mean Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1195-1211, February.

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