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Accuracy of premium calculation models for CAT bonds: An empirical analysis

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  • Galeotti, Marcello
  • Gürtler, Marc
  • Winkelvos, Christine

Abstract

CAT bonds are of significant importance in the field of alternative risk transfer. Since the market of CAT bonds is not complete, the application of an appropriate pricing model is of high relevance. We apply different premium calculation models in order to compare them with regard to their predictive power. Without taking the financial crisis into account, a version of the Wang transformation model and the linear model are the most accurate ones. In contrast, under consideration of the financial crisis, all analyzed models are approximately equivalent. Furthermore, we find that CAT bond specific information does not improve out-of-sample results.

Suggested Citation

  • Galeotti, Marcello & Gürtler, Marc & Winkelvos, Christine, 2009. "Accuracy of premium calculation models for CAT bonds: An empirical analysis," Working Papers IF29V4, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tbsifw:if29v4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Furman, Edward & Zitikis, Ricardas, 2008. "Weighted premium calculation principles," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 459-465, February.
    2. Lane, Morton N., 2000. "Pricing Risk Transfer Transactions1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 259-293, November.
    3. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    4. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2009. "Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk‐Transfer Solutions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 493-545, September.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Mariani & Paola Amoruso & Raffaele Didonato & Alessandra Caragnano, 2018. "The Drivers of Cat Bond Spread in the Primary Market," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(2), pages 1-65, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAT Bonds; Alternative Risk Transfer; Premium Calculation Models; Empirical Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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