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Regional Population–Employment Dynamics Across Different Sectors Of The Economy

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  • Thomas de Graaff
  • Frank G. van Oort
  • Raymond J.G.M. Florax

Abstract

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'Journal of Regional Science' . An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally do not include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that allowing for economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially in forecasting. An econometric model of population-employment dynamics in which sectoral variations in economic development are explicitly taken into account is applied to a large urban planning policy proposal in The Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest that population dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly on intersectoral dynamics. Intersectoral dynamics appear as important drivers of regional sectoral employment changes; they are even more important than population changes, and their effect shows up clearly even within the Dutch institutional context where strict regulatory housing and planning restrictions are enforced.
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  • Thomas de Graaff & Frank G. van Oort & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2012. "Regional Population–Employment Dynamics Across Different Sectors Of The Economy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 60-84, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:52:y:2012:i:1:p:60-84
    DOI: j.1467-9787.2011.00753.x
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    4. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Miguel Ángel Márquez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina & Júlia Cravo, 2022. "Are semi-urban spillovers the answer to left-behind places in rural Europe? The case of the Portuguese municipalities," Working Papers 2022/14, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    5. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Zhu, Xuening & Huang, Danyang & Pan, Rui & Wang, Hansheng, 2020. "Multivariate spatial autoregressive model for large scale social networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 591-606.
    7. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2021. "Estimation of dynamic panel spatial vector autoregression: Stability and spatial multivariate cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 337-367.
    8. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Identification and QML estimation of multivariate and simultaneous equations spatial autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 196-214.
    9. Jason P. Brown & Dayton M. Lambert & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2013. "The Birth, Death, and Persistence of Firms: Creative Destruction and the Spatial Distribution of U.S. Manufacturing Establishments, 2000–2006," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 89(3), pages 203-226, July.
    10. Dayton M. Lambert, 2020. "Dynamic panel estimation of a regional adjustment model with spatial-temporal robust covariance," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 245-265, December.
    11. van den Heuvel, Frank P. & Rivera, Liliana & van Donselaar, Karel H. & de Jong, Ad & Sheffi, Yossi & de Langen, Peter W. & Fransoo, Jan C., 2014. "Relationship between freight accessibility and logistics employment in US counties," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 91-105.
    12. Simon Choi & Changkeun Park & JiYoung Park, 2014. "A spatio-temporal analysis of population and employment growth for Southern California," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 19-40, January.
    13. Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of regional employment–population ratios and their commonality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(2), pages 338-354, February.
    14. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Miguel A. Márquez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2020. "Spatio-sectoral heterogeneity and population-employment dynamics: Some implications for territorial development," Working Papers 2020/24, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
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    16. Dayton M. Lambert & Wan Xu & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2014. "Partial Adjustment Analysis of Income and Jobs, and Growth Regimes in the Appalachian Region with Smooth Transition Spatial Process Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 37(3), pages 328-364, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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