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Stochastic models of geriatric patient bed occupancy behaviour

Author

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  • G. J. Taylor
  • S. I. McClean
  • P. H. Millard

Abstract

This paper considers a census approach to the modelling of the time that geriatric patients spend in hospital and subsequently in the community by using a stochastic compartmental Markov model. A selection process is developed using maximum likelihood estimation to fit the model to daily census data on the duration spent in the hospital or the community. Census data are used as they are easy to collect and therefore maximize the usability of the model. The model is fitted to an extensive 16‐year data‐set and shown to provide realistic estimates of movements of patients by using only a single day's census result.

Suggested Citation

  • G. J. Taylor & S. I. McClean & P. H. Millard, 2000. "Stochastic models of geriatric patient bed occupancy behaviour," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 39-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:163:y:2000:i:1:p:39-48
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00155
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    Cited by:

    1. G. Vasiliadis & G. Tsaklidis, 2008. "On the Distributions of the State Sizes of Discrete Time Homogeneous Markov Systems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 55-71, March.
    2. Broyles, James R. & Cochran, Jeffery K. & Montgomery, Douglas C., 2010. "A statistical Markov chain approximation of transient hospital inpatient inventory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1645-1657, December.
    3. Gang Du & Xi Liang & Chuanwang Sun, 2017. "Scheduling Optimization of Home Health Care Service Considering Patients’ Priorities and Time Windows," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, February.
    4. P.-C. G. Vassiliou, 2020. "Laws of Large Numbers for Non-Homogeneous Markov Systems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1631-1658, December.
    5. Noa Zychlinski & Avishai Mandelbaum & Petar Momčilović & Izack Cohen, 2020. "Bed Blocking in Hospitals Due to Scarce Capacity in Geriatric Institutions—Cost Minimization via Fluid Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 396-411, March.
    6. R. Bekker & A. Bruin, 2010. "Time-dependent analysis for refused admissions in clinical wards," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 45-65, July.
    7. McGrory, C.A. & Pettitt, A.N. & Faddy, M.J., 2009. "A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4311-4321, October.
    8. Xiang Zhong & Peter Hoonakker & Philip A. Bain & Albert J. Musa & Jingshan Li, 2018. "The impact of e-visits on patient access to primary care," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 475-491, December.
    9. George Vasiliadis, 2012. "On the Distributions of the State Sizes of the Continuous Time Homogeneous Markov System with Finite State Capacities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 863-882, September.
    10. G. Vasiliadis & G. Tsaklidis, 2009. "On the Distributions of the State Sizes of Closed Continuous Time Homogeneous Markov Systems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 561-582, December.
    11. repec:dgr:rugsom:02a63 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. S McClean & P Millard, 2007. "Where to treat the older patient? Can Markov models help us better understand the relationship between hospital and community care?," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(2), pages 255-261, February.
    13. Akkerman, Renzo & Knip, Marrig, 2002. "Reallocation of beds to reduce waiting time for cardiac surgery," Research Report 02A63, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    14. P.-C.G. Vassiliou, 2021. "Non-Homogeneous Markov Set Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Xiang Zhong & Jie Song & Jingshan Li & Susan M. Ertl & Lauren Fiedler, 2016. "Design and analysis of gastroenterology (GI) clinic in Digestive Health Center of University of Wisconsin Health," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 90-119, June.

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