IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v45y2007i3p481-513.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts: The Case of Earnings Forecast Revisions

Author

Listed:
  • SARAH E. BONNER
  • ARTUR HUGON
  • BEVERLY R. WALTHER

Abstract

We examine the effects of analysts' celebrity on investor reaction to earnings forecast revisions. We measure celebrity as the quantity of media coverage analysts receive in sources included in the Dow Jones Interactive database, and find that media coverage is positively related to investor reaction to forecast revisions. The effect of celebrity on the reaction to forecast revisions remains significant after controlling for forecast performance variables examined in prior studies (ex post forecast accuracy, ex ante accuracy, award status, and other variables shown to be related to forecast accuracy). While these results are consistent with the familiarity of the analyst's name affecting the market reaction, we cannot rule out that our measure of celebrity is correlated with error in the performance measures we examine and/or correlated with other unexamined dimensions of forecast performance. A content analysis of a random subsample of the media coverage of our sample analysts suggests that our findings likely are not due to the increased availability of forecast revisions. Finally, an investigation of the excess returns around the quarterly earnings announcement date suggests that market participants react too strongly to forecast revisions issued by analysts with high levels of media coverage. Taken together, these findings suggest that an analyst's level of media coverage can affect the initial market reaction to his forecast revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah E. Bonner & Artur Hugon & Beverly R. Walther, 2007. "Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts: The Case of Earnings Forecast Revisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 481-513, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:481-513
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00245.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00245.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00245.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
    2. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1998. "Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 768-805, August.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Dopuch, Nicholas & Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "Abnormal stock returns associated with media disclosures of `subject to' qualified audit opinions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 93-117, June.
    5. Mutchler, JF & Hopwood, W & McKeown, JM, 1997. "The influence of contrary information and mitigating factors on audit opinion decisions on bankrupt companies," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 295-310.
    6. Imhoff, Ea & Lobo, Gj, 1984. "Information-Content Of Analysts Composite Forecast Revisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 541-554.
    7. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Craig R. Fox & Amos Tversky, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 585-603.
    10. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    11. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    12. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    13. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
    14. Gu, Zhaoyang & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, April.
    15. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    17. Busse, Jeffrey A. & Clifton Green, T., 2002. "Market efficiency in real time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 415-437, September.
    18. Gonedes, Nj & Dopuch, N & Penman, Sh, 1976. "Disclosure Rules, Information-Production, And Capital-Market Equilibrium - Case Of Forecast Disclosure Rules," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 89-137.
    19. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Michaely, Roni, 1988. "Information Quality and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70, March.
    20. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    21. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    22. Dan S. Dhaliwal & Kyung J. Lee & Neil L. Fargher, 1991. "The association between unexpected earnings and abnormal security returns in the presence of financial leverage," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 20-41, September.
    23. Jennifer R. Joe, 2003. "Why Press Coverage of a Client Influences the Audit Opinion," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 109-133, March.
    24. Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 197-227.
    25. Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh & Peter D. Wysocki, 2004. "The Walk†down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 885-924, December.
    26. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rees, Lynn & Sharp, Nathan Y. & Wong, Paul A., 2017. "Working on the weekend: Do analysts strategically time the release of their recommendation revisions?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 104-121.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Danling Jiang & Alok Kumar & Kelvin K. F. Law, 2016. "Political contributions and analyst behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 37-88, March.
    4. Xiaoxiao Song, 2019. "Effects Of Analysts’ Country Familiarity On Forecast Behavior: Evidence From Chinese Cross-Listed Firms In The United States," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 11(1), pages 35-46.
    5. Chia-Wei Chen & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2013. "Press Coverage And Stock Price Deviation From Fundamental Value," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 175-214, June.
    6. Yih-Wenn Laih, 2016. "Do Experts in Financial Magazines Exhibit the Representativeness Heuristic? Evidence from Taiwan," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1-49, November.
    7. Alok Kumar, 2010. "Self‐Selection and the Forecasting Abilities of Female Equity Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 393-435, May.
    8. Ole-Kristian Hope & Wuyang Zhao, 2018. "Market reactions to the closest peer firm’s analyst revisions," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 345-372, June.
    9. Li, Chao Kevin & Luo, Jin-hui & Soderstrom, Naomi S., 2020. "Air pollution and analyst information production," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Olivier Driessens, 2015. "On the epistemology and operationalisation of celebrity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62291, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Lin Peng & Siew Hong Teoh & Yakun Wang & Jiawen Yan, 2022. "Face Value: Trait Impressions, Performance Characteristics, and Market Outcomes for Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 653-705, May.
    12. Ferhat D. Zengul & Nurettin Oner & James D. Byrd & Arline Savage, 2021. "Revealing Research Themes and Trends in 30 Top‐ranking Accounting Journals: A Text‐mining Approach," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(3), pages 468-501, September.
    13. Chen, Wei & Tan, Hun-Tong, 2013. "Judgment effects of familiarity with an analyst’s name," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 214-227.
    14. Minkwan Ahn & Michael Drake & Hangsoo Kyung & Han Stice, 2019. "The role of the business press in the pricing of analysts’ recommendation revisions," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 341-392, March.
    15. Samie Ahmed Sayed, 2016. "Are Stars Worth Following? Measuring the Target Price Predictive Ability of Star Analysts in an Emerging Market," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 173-185, July.
    16. Huang, Allen H. & Lin, An-Ping & Zang, Amy Y., 2022. "Cross-industry information sharing among colleagues and analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1).
    17. Lian Fen Lee & Alvis K. Lo, 2016. "Do Opinions on Financial Misstatement Firms Affect Analysts’ Reputation with Investors? Evidence from Reputational Spillovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1111-1148, September.
    18. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    19. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    20. Philip Brown & Alexey Feigin & Andrew Ferguson, 2014. "Market reactions to the reports of a star resource analyst," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 137-158, February.
    21. Xu, Nianhang & Chan, Kam C. & Jiang, Xuanyu & Yi, Zhihong, 2013. "Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-102.
    22. Clarence Goh, 2024. "Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(1), pages 172-204, March.
    23. Vafaeimehr, Ahmadreza & Schulmerich, Marcus & Paterlini, Sandra, 2023. "Top investment banks, confirmation Bias, and the market pricing of forecast revisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    24. Yuyan Guan & Congcong Li & Hai Lu & M. H. Franco Wong, 2019. "Regulations and Brain Drain: Evidence from Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5766-5784, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Carole Gresse & Laurence Porteu de la Morandière, 2015. "Rising and Senior Stars in European Financial Analyst Rankings: The Talented and the Famous," Working Papers 01, Groupe ESC Pau, Research Department, revised Jan 2015.
    4. Danling Jiang & Alok Kumar & Kelvin K. F. Law, 2016. "Political contributions and analyst behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 37-88, March.
    5. Bolliger, Guido, 2004. "The characteristics of individual analysts' forecasts in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2283-2309, September.
    6. Anup Agrawal & Mark A. Chen, 2008. "Do Analyst Conflicts Matter? Evidence from Stock Recommendations," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 503-537, August.
    7. Li, Xi, 2005. "The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 129-152, December.
    8. Hugon, Artur & Muslu, Volkan, 2010. "Market demand for conservative analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 42-57, May.
    9. Bin Ke & Yong Yu, 2006. "The Effect of Issuing Biased Earnings Forecasts on Analysts' Access to Management and Survival," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 965-999, December.
    10. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    11. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Marston, Felicia & Starks, Laura T. & Wei, Kelsey D. & Yan, Hong, 2007. "Conflicts of interest in sell-side research and the moderating role of institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 420-456, August.
    12. Clement, Michael B. & Koonce, Lisa & Lopez, Thomas J., 2007. "The roles of task-specific forecasting experience and innate ability in understanding analyst forecasting performance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 378-398, December.
    13. Ting Chen & Xiumin Martin, 2011. "Do Bank‐Affiliated Analysts Benefit from Lending Relationships?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 633-675, June.
    14. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    15. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    16. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.
    17. Peter F. Pope & Tong Wang, 2023. "Analyst ability and research effort: non-EPS forecast provision as a research quality signal," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1263-1315, September.
    18. O. Emre Ergungor & Leonardo Madureira & Nandkumar Nayar & Ajai K. Singh, 2011. "Banking relationships and sell-side research," Working Papers (Old Series) 1114, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. Sanghyuk Byun & Kristin Roland, 2021. "Analyst bias and forecast consistency," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5403-5437, December.
    20. Boris Groysberg & Paul M. Healy & David A. Maber, 2011. "What Drives Sell‐Side Analyst Compensation at High‐Status Investment Banks?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 969-1000, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:481-513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.