IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocaae/v11y2015i2p104-120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysts' earnings forecasts and technological conditions in the firm's investment environment

Author

Listed:
  • Lambert, David
  • Matolcsy, Zoltan
  • Wyatt, Anne

Abstract

This paper examines the association between sell-side analysts' short and long-term EPS forecasts, growth rates, and forecast errors, and measures of technological conditions in the firm's industry investment environment. Our contention is analysts' industry knowledge includes an understanding of the technological conditions to which the firms' investments are exposed and how these technological conditions within industries map into future earnings. We predict and find as the horizon lengthens that interactions between technological conditions and current EPS are significantly associated with analysts' EPS and growth forecasts. The long horizon EPS growth results align with Jung, Shane and Yang who suggest analysts' growth forecasts reflect efforts to evaluate the firms' long-run prospects. We also present results for analysts' forecast errors that suggest analysts' technological knowledge is associated with optimistically biased long-term forecasts. Our evidence suggests analysts' industry knowledge includes the implications of technological conditions within industries for firms' future earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambert, David & Matolcsy, Zoltan & Wyatt, Anne, 2015. "Analysts' earnings forecasts and technological conditions in the firm's investment environment," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 104-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:11:y:2015:i:2:p:104-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcae.2015.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1815566915000041
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcae.2015.01.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allen, Eric J. & Larson, Chad R. & Sloan, Richard G., 2013. "Accrual reversals, earnings and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 113-129.
    2. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    3. Richard D. F. Harris, 1999. "The Accuracy, Bias and Efficiency of Analysts’ Long Run Earnings Growth Forecasts," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5‐6), pages 725-755, June.
    4. Gaétan Breton & Richard Taffler, 2001. "Accounting information and analyst stock recommendation decisions: a content analysis approach," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 91-101.
    5. Stephan, Paula E., 2010. "The Economics of Science," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 217-273, Elsevier.
    6. Jung, Boochun & Shane, Philip B. & Sunny Yang, Yanhua, 2012. "Do financial analysts' long-term growth forecasts matter? Evidence from stock recommendations and career outcomes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 55-76.
    7. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. "Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
    8. Stanimir Markov & Ane Tamayo, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 725-761, September.
    9. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    10. Kothari, S. P. & Sabino, Jowell S. & Zach, Tzachi, 2005. "Implications of survival and data trimming for tests of market efficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 129-161, February.
    11. Barth, Mary E. & Beaver, William H. & Landsman, Wayne R., 1998. "Relative valuation roles of equity book value and net income as a function of financial health," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-34, February.
    12. Abarbanell, JS & Bushee, BJ, 1997. "Fundamental analysis, future earnings, and stock prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24.
    13. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    14. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 565-590, June.
    15. Mendenhall, Rr, 1991. "Evidence On The Possible Underweighting Of Earnings-Related Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 170-179.
    16. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    17. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    18. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    19. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    20. Dichev, Ilia D. & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2013. "Earnings quality: Evidence from the field," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 1-33.
    21. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
    22. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    23. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    24. Lambert, Richard A., 2004. "Discussion of analysts' treatment of non-recurring items in street earnings and loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 205-222, December.
    25. Masako N. Darrough, 2002. "A Positive Model of Earnings Forecasts: Top Down versus Bottom Up," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(1), pages 127-152, January.
    26. Giovanni Dosi, 2000. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Chapters, in: Innovation, Organization and Economic Dynamics, chapter 2, pages 63-114, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. J. Holland, 1998. "Private disclosure and financial reporting," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 255-269.
    28. Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 643-684, April.
    29. O'Hanlon, J., 1993. "Commentary on: Lawrence D. Brown "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 321-323, November.
    30. McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
    31. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    32. Richard Barker, 1999. "The role of dividends in valuation models used by analysts and fund managers," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 195-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    3. Lawrence D. Brown & Andrew C. Call & Michael B. Clement & Nathan Y. Sharp, 2015. "Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-47, March.
    4. Clatworthy, Mark A. & Peel, David A. & Pope, Peter F., 2007. "Evaluating the properties of analysts’ forecasts: A bootstrap approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-13.
    5. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    6. Ruei-Shian Wu & Hsiou-wei W. Lin, 2014. "Security analysts' incentive and cognitive processing bias: evidence from analysts' recommendations," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 443-471, December.
    7. Naresh Bansal & Jack Strauss & Alireza Nasseh, 2015. "Can we consistently forecast a firm’s earnings? Using combination forecast methods to predict the EPS of Dow firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    9. Dana Hollie & Philip B. Shane & Qiuhong Zhao & Steven Cahan, 2017. "The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 199-237, March.
    10. Harris, Richard D.F. & Wang, Pengguo, 2019. "Model-based earnings forecasts vs. financial analysts' earnings forecasts," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 424-437.
    11. Machado, André & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2021. "Sell-side analyst reports and decision-maker reactions: Role of heuristics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    12. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2005. "Value Line and I/B/E/S earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 185-198.
    13. Dichev, Ilia D. & Tang, Vicki Wei, 2009. "Earnings volatility and earnings predictability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1-2), pages 160-181, March.
    14. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    15. Young†Soo Choi & John F. O'Hanlon & Peter F. Pope, 2006. "Conservative Accounting and Linear Information Valuation Models," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 73-101, March.
    16. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    17. Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Gu, Zhaoyang & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, April.
    19. John Garcia, 2021. "Analyst herding and firm-level investor sentiment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 461-494, December.
    20. Sandrine LARDIC & Karine MICHALON & François DOSSOU, 2008. "Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(11), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological conditions within industries; Investment opportunities; Analysts' forecasts and forecast errors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:11:y:2015:i:2:p:104-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-contemporary-accounting-and-economics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.