IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfnres/v46y2023i1p203-215.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sentiment or habits: Why not both?

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Tham

Abstract

Habits and sentiment are important psychological behaviors in asset pricing. In this article I nest consumer sentiment as a risk factor into the Campbell–Cochrane (CC) habit model and examine its impact on asset prices. The model provides an economic mechanism for the pricing of sentiment risk through its impact on habit sensitivity and equilibrium habit levels but finds its market price of risk much lower than fundamentals. The additional sentiment factor does not improve the CC model, with both models returning a matched moments error of 12 % $12 \% $ from 1980Q1 to 2021Q4. The sentiment factor, however, subsumes risk aversion with a lower resulting risk coefficient than the CC model without sentiment. Furthermore, the model shows that during the COVID period, the risk premium was driven more by consumption growth than sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Tham, 2023. "Sentiment or habits: Why not both?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 203-215, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:46:y:2023:i:1:p:203-215
    DOI: 10.1111/jfir.12312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfir.12312
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jfir.12312?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2010. "Are Risk Aversion and Impatience Related to Cognitive Ability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1238-1260, June.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    4. Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "Why Don't Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a $25 Million Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 153-183, October.
    5. Drichoutis, Andreas C. & Nayga, Rodolfo M., 2013. "Eliciting risk and time preferences under induced mood states," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 18-27.
    6. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    7. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    8. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    9. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Cuilty, Emilio, 2014. "The role of emotions on risk aversion: A Prospect Theory experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-9.
    10. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    11. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    14. Selim AREN & A. Berrak KÖTEN, 2019. "The Effects Of Emotions On Risk Aversion Behavior," JOURNAL OF LIFE ECONOMICS, Holistence Publications, vol. 6(4), pages 421-436, October.
    15. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    16. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "A Psychological Perspective on Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 162-168, May.
    17. Wachter, Jessica A., 2005. "Solving models with external habit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 210-226, December.
    18. Jinfang Li, 2015. "The asymmetric effects of investor sentiment and monetary policy on stock prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2514-2522, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Andrei Semenov, 2003. "High-Order Consumption Moments and Asset Pricing," Working Papers 2003_4, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Andrei Semenov, 2008. "Estimation of the consumption CAPM with imperfect sample separation information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 333-348.
    6. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    8. Bender, Svetlana & Choi, James J. & Dyson, Danielle & Robertson, Adriana Z., 2022. "Millionaires speak: What drives their personal investment decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 305-330.
    9. Merella, Vincenzo & Satchell, Stephen E., 2022. "By force of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Estimating Nonseparable Preference Specifications for Asset Market Participants," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-12, CIRANO.
    11. Andrei Semenov, 2003. "An Empirical Assessment of a Consumption CAPM with a Reference Level under Incomplete Consumption Insurance," Working Papers 2003_5, York University, Department of Economics.
    12. Vincenzo Merella & Stephen E. Satchell, 2014. "Technology Shocks and Asset Pricing: The Role of Consumer Confidence," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 352, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    13. Christopher Otrok & B. Ravikumar & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Evaluating asset-pricing models using the Hansen-Jagannathan bound: a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 149-174.
    14. Jacobs, Kris, 2000. "Estimating Nonseparable Preference Specifications for Asset Market Participants," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1472, Econometric Society.
    15. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    16. Kris Jacobs, 2002. "The Rate of Risk Aversion May Be Lower Than You Think," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-08, CIRANO.
    17. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "The Total Risk Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 25653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," Discussion Papers 08-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    19. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    20. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:46:y:2023:i:1:p:203-215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.