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Market Timing In Regressions And Reality

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  • Kenneth L. Fisher
  • Meir Statman

Abstract

We compare price‐to‐earnings ratios and dividend yields, which are indirect measures of sentiment, with the bullish sentiment index, which is a direct measure. We find that the sentiment index does better as a market‐timing tool than do P/E ratios and dividend yields, but none is very reliable. We do not argue that market timing is impossible. Rather, we observe that stock prices reflect both sentiment and value, both of which are difficult to measure and neither of which is perfectly known in foresight. Successful market timing requires insights into future sentiment and value, insights beyond those that are reflected in widely available measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth L. Fisher & Meir Statman, 2006. "Market Timing In Regressions And Reality," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 293-304, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:29:y:2006:i:3:p:293-304
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2006.00179.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Pfau, Wade Donald, 2011. "Revisiting the Fisher and Statman Study on Market Timing," MPRA Paper 29448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bouteska, Ahmed, 2019. "The effect of investor sentiment on market reactions to financial earnings restatements: Lessons from the United States," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    3. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2023. "Are Islamic stocks immune from financial crises? Evidence from contagion tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 919-948.
    4. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    5. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin & Chang, Ya-Kai, 2022. "Investor sentiment spillover effect and market quality in crude oil futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 177-193.
    6. Konstantinos D. Melas & Photis M. Panayides & Dimitris A. Tsouknidis, 2022. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and investor sentiment components across freight-shipping markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(2), pages 368-394, June.
    7. Mohamed Zouaoui & Geneviève Nouyrigat & Francisca Beer, 2011. "How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises?Evidence from panel data," Working Papers CREGO 1110304, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    8. Kurov, Alexander, 2010. "Investor sentiment and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 139-149, January.
    9. Mehwish Aziz Khan & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2018. "Measurement of Investor Sentiment and Its Bi-Directional Contemporaneous and Lead–Lag Relationship with Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Pfau, Wade Donald, 2011. "Withdrawal Rates, Savings Rates, and Valuation-Based Asset Allocation," MPRA Paper 35329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. M. Zouaoui & G. Nouyrigat & F. Beer, 2010. "How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises? Evidence from panel data," Post-Print halshs-00534754, HAL.
    12. Jędrzej Białkowski & Moritz Wagner & Xiaopeng Wei, 2023. "Differences between NZ and U.S. individual investor sentiment: More noise or more information?," Working Papers in Economics 23/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    13. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
    14. Chung Baek, 2016. "Stock prices, dividends, earnings, and investor sentiment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1043-1061, November.
    15. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Junmao Chiu & Huimin Chung & Keng-Yu Ho, 2014. "Fear Sentiment, Liquidity, and Trading Behavior: Evidence from the Index ETF Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-25.
    17. Gunter Löffler, 2013. "Tower Building And Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 413-434, September.
    18. Chen Gu & Denghui Chen & Raluca Stan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the market reaction to macroeconomic news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1412-1426, September.
    19. Blake LeBaron, 2010. "Heterogeneous Gain Learning and Long Swings in Asset Prices," Working Papers 10, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    20. Lewis, Yimai & Bozos, Konstantinos, 2019. "Mitigating post-acquisition risk: the interplay of cross-border uncertainties," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1-1.

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