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A Reexamination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure: A Comment

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  • McCulloch, J Huston

Abstract

An example of a continuous time economy is given whose general equilibrium term structure of interest rates obeys the Expectations Hypothesis for continuously compounded interest rates and returns, contradicting the 1981 claim by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross that such an economy is mathematically impossible. This example does not generate exploitable arbitrage opportunities of the type Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross claim must arise. The 'Logarithmic Expectations Hypothesis,' as we call it, is therefore an acceptable benchmark from which to measure term premia in continuous time term structure modeling. Copyright 1993 by American Finance Association.

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  • McCulloch, J Huston, 1993. "A Reexamination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure: A Comment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 779-789, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:48:y:1993:i:2:p:779-89
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    Cited by:

    1. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1996. "The Expectation Theory: Tests on French, German, and American Euro-Rates," Working papers 35, Banque de France.
    2. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, December.
    3. Wang, Jiang, 1959-, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in a pure exchange economy with heterogeneous investors," Working papers 3839-95., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
    5. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    6. Mark Fisher & Christian Gilles, "undated". "Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    7. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Jondeau, E., 1999. "Interest Rate Transmission and Volatility Transmission along the Yield Curve," Working papers 57, Banque de France.
    8. Riedel, Frank, 1997. "A class of Health-Jarrow-Morton models in which the unbiased expectations hypothesis holds," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Mark Fisher, 2001. "Forces that shape the yield curve: Parts 1 and 2," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
    11. Luca Taschini & Matteo Bonato, 2016. "Comovement and the Financialization of Commodities," Working Papers 64, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    12. Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2016. "Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 38-50.
    13. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2010. "A Rational Expectations Consistent Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 769-793, December.
    14. Choong Tze Chua & Dean Foster & Krishna Ramaswamy & Robert Stine, 2008. "A Dynamic Model for the Forward Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 265-310, January.
    15. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    16. Jiang Wang, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Pure Exchange Economy with Heterogeneous Investors," NBER Working Papers 5172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "Stationarity and the term structure of interest rates: a characterisation of stationary and unit root yield curves," Working Papers 0811, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    19. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    20. Johannes W. Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2007. "A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Working Papers 064, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    21. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2003. "Long rates, risk premia and the over-reaction hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 417-435, March.

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