IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/1996-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Fisher
  • Christian Gilles

Abstract

We show how to construct arbitrage-free models of he term structure of interest rates in which various expectations hypotheses can hold. McCulloch (1993) provided a Gaussian non-Markovian example of the unbiased expectations hypothesis (U--EH), thereby contradicting the assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR, 1981) that only the so-called local expectations hypothesis could hold. We generalize that example in three ways: (i) We characterize the U--EH in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a class of expectations hypotheses that includes all of those considered by CIR; and (iii) we construct stationary Markovian and non-Gaussian economies. The building block is a maturity-dependent vector that travels around a circle at a constant speed as maturity increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Fisher & Christian Gilles, "undated". "Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1996-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1996/199617/199617pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-193, March.
    2. Woodward, Susan E, 1983. "The Liquidity Premium and the Solidity Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 348-361, June.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    4. McCulloch, J Huston, 1993. "A Reexamination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure: A Comment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 779-789, June.
    5. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-799, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2010. "A Rational Expectations Consistent Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 769-793, December.
    2. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    3. Matteo Bonato & Luca Taschini, 2016. "Comovement and the financialization of commodities," GRI Working Papers 215, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    4. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2003. "Long rates, risk premia and the over-reaction hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 417-435, March.
    5. Johannes W. Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay Bell, 2007. "A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Working Papers 064, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    6. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
    7. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    8. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "Stationarity and the term structure of interest rates: a characterisation of stationary and unit root yield curves," Working Papers 0811, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bams, Dennis & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2003. "Risk premia in the term structure of interest rates: a panel data approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-236, July.
    11. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September.
    12. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    13. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
    14. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    15. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    16. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
    17. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Choong Tze Chua & Dean Foster & Krishna Ramaswamy & Robert Stine, 2008. "A Dynamic Model for the Forward Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 265-310, January.
    19. Dahlquist, Magnus & Jonsson, Gunnar, 1995. "The information in Swedish short-maturity forward rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1115-1131, June.
    20. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    21. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael, 1998. "A Re-examination of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Reconciling the Evidence from Long-Run and Short-Run Tests," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 229-239, July.
    22. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1996-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.