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Forces that shape the yield curve: Parts 1 and 2

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  • Mark Fisher

Abstract

The yield curve is shaped by (1) expectations of the future path of short-term interest rates and (2) uncertainty about the path. Uncertainty affects the yield curve through two channels: (1) investors? attitudes toward risk as reflected in risk premia, and (2) the nonlinear relation between yields and bond prices (known as convexity). The way in which these forces simultaneously work to shape the yield curve can be understood in terms of the conditions that guarantee the absence of arbitrage opportunities. ; The purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to the modern theory of the term structure of interest rates using high-school algebra. In order to present the theory correctly, one must take uncertainty seriously. Nevertheless, the source of uncertainty can be modeled quite simply: All uncertainty is resolved by a single flip of a coin. In this setting, the author can rigorously present all three forces that shape the yield curve: expectations, risk aversion, and convexity. The analysis is organized around the conditions that guarantee the absence of arbitrage opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Fisher, 2001. "Forces that shape the yield curve: Parts 1 and 2," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2001-3
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    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2001/wp0103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Fisher, 2001. "Forces that shape the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q1), pages 1-15.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    3. McCulloch, J Huston, 1993. "A Reexamination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure: A Comment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 779-789, June.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:365-383 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dybvig, Philip H & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1996. "Long Forward and Zero-Coupon Rates Can Never Fall," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-25, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada.
    2. Christophe Faugère & Julian Van Erlach, 2009. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 27-88, February.
    3. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.
    4. Krishna Ramaswamy & Choong-Tze Chua & Winston T.H. Koh, 2004. "Profiting from Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 142, Econometric Society.
    5. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
    6. Mark Fisher, 2001. "Forces that shape the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q1), pages 1-15.
    7. Lutz Kruschwitz, 2018. "Das Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 9-45, March.

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    Forecasting; Monetary policy;

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