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Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1

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  • Tony Yates

Abstract

. This paper reviews the literature on what the zero bound to nominal interest rates implies for the conduct of monetary policy. The aim is to evaluate the risks of hitting the zero bound; and to evaluate policies that are said to be able to reduce that risk, or policies that are proposed as means of helping the economy escape if it is in a zero bound ‘trap’. I conclude that policies aimed at ‘cure’ are arguably more uncertain tools than those aimed at ‘prevention’, so prevention is a less risky strategy for policymakers. But since the risks of hitting the zero bound seem quite small anyway, and the risks of encountering a deflationary spiral smaller still, it is conceivable that inflation objectives that typify modern monetary regimes already have more than enough insurance built into them to deal with the zero bound problem.

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  • Tony Yates, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 427-481, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i:3:p:427-481
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0950-0804.2004.00227.x
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    3. Ilgmann, Cordelius, 2011. "Silvio Gesell: 'a strange, unduly neglected' monetary theorist," CAWM Discussion Papers 23, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    4. Cordelius Ilgmann & Martin Menner, 2011. "Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 383-405, December.
    5. Dieppe, Alistair & McAdam, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy under a liquidity trap: Simulation evidence for the euro area," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 338-363, September.
    6. Robert Amano & Malik Shukayev, 2012. "Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1475-1505, December.
    7. Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    8. Gomes, Sandra, 2018. "Euro area structural reforms in times of a global crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 28-45.
    9. Anwar Khayat, 2015. "Negative Policy Rates, Banking Flows and Exchange Rates," AMSE Working Papers 1538, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2015.
    10. Girardin, Eric & Moussa, Zakaria, 2011. "Quantitative easing works: Lessons from the unique experience in Japan 2001â2006," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 461-495, October.
    11. Ad Van Riet, 2017. "The ECB’s Fight against Low Inflation: On the Effects of Ultra-Low Interest Rates," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27, April.
    12. Mariusz Górajski, 2018. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Model of the Polish Economy: Is the Uncertainty Responsible for the Interest Rate Smoothing Effect?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 313-340, August.
    13. Petr Wawrosz & Semen Traksel, 2023. "Negative Interest Rates and Its Impact on GDP, FDI and Banks’ Financial Performance: The Cases of Switzerland and Sweden," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, May.
    14. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    15. Alejandro SALAZAR-ADAMS & Nicolás PINEDA-PABLOS, 2010. "Policies for Meeting Future Water Needs in Mexican Cities," EcoMod2010 259600147, EcoMod.
    16. Ulrich van Suntum, "undated". "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," Working Papers 200108, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    17. Paweł Baranowski, 2008. "Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 1-23.
    18. van Suntum, Ulrich, 2009. "Economic confidence, negative interest rates, and liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," CAWM Discussion Papers 24, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    19. Ulrich van Suntum & Metin Kaptan & Cordelius Ilgmann, "undated". "Reducing the lower bound on market interest rates," Working Papers 200103, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    20. Donal Smith, 2020. "Collateral Constraints and the Interest Rate," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 137-165, May.
    21. David Cook & James Yetman, 2014. "Currency Boards when Interest Rates are Zero," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 135-151, February.
    22. Anna Florio, 2004. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 409-426, July.
    23. Anwar Khayat, 2015. "Negative Policy Rates, Banking Flows and Exchange Rates," Working Papers halshs-01203609, HAL.
    24. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.

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